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Rents would need to be that high to motivate developers, CHMC market analyst says; government seeks voluntary landlord code of conduct
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Jason Markusoff and Ron Chalmers, with files from Archie McLean and The Calgary Herald, The Edmonton Journal; with files from The Calgary Herald
8 L7 C- a, `, H$ e( }& X, N$ sPublished: Wednesday, May 16, 2007
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EDMONTON - Edmonton apartment-dwellers looking for relief from soaring rents won't find it in a red-hot housing market that will keep heating up, according to a forecast by the federal housing agency.+ P2 a! j( b. M9 z
( i3 i' p! O4 G5 f: { u( }5 P9 f5 XThe Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predicted Tuesday that average monthly rent for two-bedroom units will rise 20 per cent to $970 this October, up from $808 a year earlier.0 s" x5 H1 R& i; t: W
0 k" c- V+ B/ F0 t) \3 ]% v! CIt will then increase to $1,115 per month in 2008, marking a 38-per-cent average hike in two years. Meanwhile, the city's vacancy rate will drop to a 30-year low of 0.7 per cent this year, then keep going lower, because of "strong demand from newcomers and a shortage of new units entering the market," the CMHC report said.
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Opposition parties say the figures add fuel to their calls for government rent controls that would cap increases for existing apartments well below the CMHC projections.
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But Premier Ed Stelmach said he hasn't changed his mind on the issue.- @/ I3 \0 ~3 ^1 @% }# N
7 C: ^! N$ H* B, t8 @; j"If more units aren't put in place, then of course rents will continue to rise, but you've got to increase the supply," the permier said Tuesday. "The reverse is if you put in a temporary freeze, then no movement will be made in terms of numbers of housing units built."
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The Tory government last month pledged nearly $200 million to Alberta cities to create new affordable rental units. Richard Goatcher, CMHC's senior market analyst for Edmonton, predicted that among the growing number of housing starts few will be for renters.
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"Eventually, rents will rise to the point that someone will be motivated to build rental housing," Goatcher said. "The question is, at what price?"0 F0 }% u! P6 r
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Some developers have said that rents of $1,500 to $2,000 per month would be needed to justify new rental apartment construction, he said.
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Boardwalk, Alberta's largest landlord, has suggested prices would have to hit $1,600 before they start building.
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"The government's right to say that the underlying issue here is a shortage of supply, that's true, but there's no way in the world that enough supply is going to come on in the next couple of years to correct the market," Liberal Leader Kevin Taft said.4 Q7 h6 k s3 `& s7 M; l1 j7 [
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"And so, what do you do in the meantime? People are going to be thrown out onto the street."
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' y( l' f* n! W1 ]8 d+ mTaft advocates temporary rent controls, as does a recent report from the government's housing task force. An Ipsos-Reid poll found that 78 per cent of homeowners and 92 per cent of renters in Calgary and Edmonton support government caps on rent increases.
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Health Minister Dave Hancock, Edmonton's senior-ranking Tory, called the poll ridiculous.
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7 b2 v% ]1 y5 N1 o3 I% ?"If you ask anybody, 'Would you like to pay more or would you like to have somebody legislate to keep your costs down,' you'll get that kind of an answer," he said. "The issue of accommodation and how we assist people with managing accommodation costs is a lot more complex than that."* q7 U1 }7 O- _, L: l
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But several Calgary Tory MLAs say the government may have to reconsider its position.; `# ~0 J N/ S. J% ] s
: L6 T6 S) ]3 \' M7 \"We are servants of Albertans, and if that is what they want, we have to rethink this," said Calgary-McCall MLA Shiraz Shariff, who currently opposes rent controls.6 G5 q; A) y. @: t
; \9 l- \( {; L/ A"If the problem persists and if that's a remedy that can be applied for a short period of time, it's something I'm willing to consider."
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0 o, P1 O' w; J6 `- `1 tCalgary-Nose Hill MLA Neil Brown said housing is the No. 1 reason people call his office, and most want rent controls. Calgary-Fort MLA Wayne Cao, whose riding drafted a failed resolution at the recent Tory convention calling for measures such as rent controls, said he doesn't support ceilings on rent increases, but recognizes the government must do something.
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"With that kind of poll, I guess we will discuss around it," Cao said. "To be politicians, we need to consider people's input."
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. y2 L4 i- v9 I; @) h0 m% Y \2 YAlana DeLong, MLA for Calgary-Bow, said she is against temporary rent controls because they are difficult to remove and would discourage new building. However, she is concerned that so many people seem to be in favour of ceilings.; b. ` Z- Y: X. L. t9 B
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"I'll be certainly looking at it again," she said.
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Meanwhile, Service Alberta Minister Lloyd Snelgrove's proposal to stop landlords from extreme rent hikes by blacklisting them from government-funded programs appears to be shelved for now. He said he didn't discuss the plan with the province's advisory group of landlords and tenant-issue officials this week as he'd earlier planned, and avoided bringing up the blacklist as a solution to the housing crunch.
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: a% K# w% N; O! P"I would like to see if they have ideas to help this thing," Snelgrove said, referring to the advisory committee.+ L+ y+ g+ k! ^
) _3 F- j% c/ v$ D, t* y0 FOne member, Clarence Rusnell of Artec Realty and Management, said he had no opinion on the blacklist idea, since it wasn't mentioned during the group's meeting with Snelgrove. He also argued that rents will only increase at half the rate CMHC predicted.
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3 A8 h! Q7 ~2 e6 C& EGoatcher predicted "total housing starts will moderate slightly this year in greater Edmonton to 14,150 units, but will still represent the third-highest year on record."
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The balance of new-home construction is shifting away from single-family homes toward condos because of high costs, an inventory of unsold single-family homes and a shortage of building lots.
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Multiple unit starts, mostly condos, will reach the highest level since 1982, with 6,000 units in 2007 and close to 5,500 in 2008.5 D& G/ p. P7 q/ `
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"Some of those condos will move into the rental market, but at rates substantially above the average market rent," Goatcher said.
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- d2 d z( v: ^$ z* p: o7 tHe traced the continued brisk construction activity to regional economic strength, in-migration and stable mortgage rates.9 M4 A$ r/ k5 y7 _
4 Z, @3 j# V. m% Y1 pSales of resale homes, which hit a record number of 21,984 units in 2006, will rise higher in 2007 with the growth of new listings, CMHC predicted. Sales are then expected to fall slightly in 2008 as high prices deter first-time buyers.
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$ f& @& t+ v6 zCMHC forecasts that full-year average prices, for all forms of resale housing, will rise from $251,000 in 2006 to $340,000 in 2007 and $374,000 in 2008. That forecast may already be outdated, as the Edmonton Real Estate Board has reported that prices averaged $344,137 in April.
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"Our forecast is looking conservative, but we are expecting price growth to slow down," Goatcher said.6 ]& E4 w5 e o, _
/ h4 N8 P9 j5 X9 a* I6 wAlso on Tuesday, the government asked its Alberta Residential Tenancies Committee to come back in a month with suggestions for a voluntary landlord code of conduct, as well as other ideas for dealing with housing problems. The committee was established in 2003 to advise government on residential tenancies matters and is made up of landlords, housing and business officials and an academic.$ f& |, Q5 x5 C
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Service Alberta spokesman Cam Traynor said the members rejected the idea of having an MLA sit on the committee -- a role last week that Calgary MLA Len Webber was expected to fill. Traynor said the committee made the decision to keep the committee external from government. |
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