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4 Y' f; P* C- W" Q {# q Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com/ }9 | w+ t/ Y3 F- _$ ~
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( i; X0 V" k3 G0 R- a! gThu, January 11, 2007
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2 Q6 X! f% K1 Z& u* tPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
8 r- \. t! ]$ Z: MBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. " [* H. e1 I% N
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 7 _- C; x9 D7 \4 B# p
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. ) b9 o# \4 D( }5 L0 w
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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; p) B! F" {9 M+ XShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." ; \1 a5 y! k3 E x* K, |% B
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. + ]5 W" |- m: t" ?0 j
9 w5 j8 Z( y2 m"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 9 _; J/ N4 N* d* C! e4 m- a; a
2 s+ D* W* Y3 E3 o"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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' O1 h1 K0 }% q: p& r+ NHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." . ^: Z+ S& o0 T
& \4 c8 q3 `) Z$ t* cExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. . x9 k$ R, ~4 p
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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" A& K. X& v$ L/ k* L! R! U; \"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. 5 \ n8 k' a k/ w5 O& o, W
1 v8 C0 ]- h/ F+ }So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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# m/ p- e' S5 [( c+ s7 }Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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6 M+ E- R' v) y' q) A) I! k"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll.
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