RBC report

醉酒当歌 · 发表于 2007-1-8 23:16

http://www.rbc.com/newsroom/20061220housing-affordability.html

Canada’s housing affordability continues to erode, but next year should yield improvements, says RBC Economics
Climbing house prices continue to outpace income growth

TORONTO, December 20, 2006 — Stable borrowing rates and a slight decline in utility costs provided little relief to homeowners as Canada's housing affordability conditions deteriorated for the fourth consecutive quarter, according to the latest Housing Affordability Index released today by RBC Economics.

"Across Canada, housing affordability further eroded as rising house prices outpaced income growth in the third quarter of 2006," said Derek Holt, assistant chief economist, RBC. "However, affordability is likely to improve slightly next year as the lagged effects of fourth quarter mortgage rate declines, easing energy price pressures and a topping out of home price appreciation will have a positive impact for home buyers.

"In fact, after three consecutive quarters of sharp deteriorations in affordability, the pace slowed for all home classes in almost every region of the country. Alberta's housing affordability was the lone exception, but it will probably join the rest of the country next year," said Holt.

The RBC Affordability Index measures the proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a home. The most affordable housing class remains the standard condo, with an index of 28 per cent. A standard townhouse is next at 32 per cent followed by a detached bungalow at 40.2 per cent. A standard two-storey home is still the least affordable housing type with an index reading of 45.8 per cent.

According to the RBC report, new home construction and house resales are expected to soften nationwide in 2007, alongside more reined-in expectations for house price gains. The overall volume of home sales activity should remain high while the majority of home equity gains enjoyed in recent years should also be retained.

In central Canada, affordability is already improving across some housing types despite softening incomes. For example, Toronto prices for two-storey homes and townhomes are flat compared to a year ago while bungalows are up mildly, and condo gains are weakening. However, British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and most types of housing in Atlantic Canada, continue to witness deteriorating affordability conditions.

RBC's Affordability Index for a detached bungalow in Canada's other largest cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.1 per cent, Toronto 43.8 per cent, Calgary 40.9 per cent, Edmonton 33.4 per cent, Montreal 36 per cent and Ottawa 30.8 per cent.

Also included in the report are housing affordability conditions for a broader sampling of smaller cities across the country. For these smaller cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only takes mortgage payments relative to incomes into account.

The Housing Affordability Index, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard condo. The higher the index, the more costly it is to afford a home. For example, an Affordability Index of 50 per cent means that homeownership costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50 per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.

Highlights from across Canada:

* British Columbia: Housing affordability deteriorated for a fourth consecutive quarter across all four types of homes driven by a small decline in average monthly incomes, higher utility bills, and climbing house prices.

* Alberta: The third quarter marked the sharpest broad-based quarterly deterioration in Alberta's affordability since 1990 with erosion of 12 to 15 per cent for all home segments. Commodity-related spin-off effects have created ample job opportunities, driven wages up and pushed unemployment to record lows, helping to fuel the residential housing market. However, the market is shifting away from excess demand and towards cooling price pressures.

* Saskatchewan: An increase in house prices, combined with a slight decline in household income this past quarter, led to a marginal deterioration in affordability. However, if rates continue to remain stable and price growth levels off, affordability is expected to improve across all sectors in 2007.

* Manitoba: For the third quarter of 2006, Manitoba saw the strongest overall improvement in affordability for three out of four housing classes. It remains the most affordable province for townhouses and condos even though the townhouse sector witnessed a marginal deterioration.

* Ontario: Dropping off from the growth peaks in house prices and incomes seen several quarters ago, Ontario's housing market has now cooled to more moderate levels. This cooling has been slow and steady, and should allow for homeowners to retain the bulk of their home equity gains going forward into 2007 and 2008.

* Quebec: Housing affordability erosion was less severe this quarter as income gains and utility relief managed to outpace house price growth. The level of sales is expected to continue to cool, while new home listings are expected to increase and price growth to slow to a gradual pace across the market.

* Atlantic region: Affordability remained relatively unchanged thanks to house price growth leveling off and cooling household income gains. Following the trend taking place in other parts of the country, the pressures on Atlantic Canada's housing market showed signs of balancing for the second half of 2006.

Player99 · 发表于 2007-1-9 08:52

Vancouver 70.1 per cent, Toronto 43.8 per cent, Calgary 40.9 per cent, Edmonton 33.4 per cent, Montreal 36 per cent and Ottawa 30.8 per cent.

Edmonton is still one of the lowest.

老杨 · 发表于 2007-1-9 09:09

醉酒，能不能翻译一下，哪怕是用中文总结一下中心思想？

yangzijiang · 发表于 2007-1-9 13:21

原帖由老杨于 2007-1-9 09:09 发表
) {" p' Z1 b& c1 Z醉酒，能不能翻译一下，哪怕是用中文总结一下中心思想？

浅草 · 发表于 2007-1-9 14:11

若能说一下段落大意就更好了.

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