知名投资人,未来5年千万别碰加国楼市

新闻从业员

本周，国际投资界再度传来“唱衰”加拿大房市之声。著名投资机构O' Leary Financial Group总裁奥李尔瑞(Kevin O'Leary)对媒体表示，他不看好五年之内的加国房市行情。就目前的周期来说，投资加国地产是最坏的选择之一

同一些国际机构如德意志银行、经合组织(OECD)不同，奥李尔瑞并没有预测加国房市正面临崩溃、房价可能缩水20%甚至更多，但是他颇为谨慎地指出，推动加国房市的动力即将耗尽，这意味着在未来数年内，房价不会有明显的增长。
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' N% k+ a. N( X1 {" [在过去的18年里，加拿大的房地产市场一直是兴旺蓬勃，即便在09年的经济不景气期间，房价也一直保持升势，只是幅度略有减少而已。推动房市的动力有低利率等因素，这让买家和炒家不用大笔资金就能入市。可是，这些极有利的因素效应很快见顶。他估计，未来五年内加拿大房价上升的幅度将不超过12%。
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. m* r, [' H! T) d; w9 }奥李尔瑞接着说，在加国投资房地产的成本颇高。首先，买家需要负担各类同地产交易相关的税项，以及3至5%的地产经纪佣金。这些林林总总的费用，令加拿大的房屋成为最昂贵的交易资产之一。投资者在楼市交易方面所负担的成本，介于8至12%的之间。
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在以往房市较为蓬勃的时代，房价增幅较大可以抵消高成本，从而获得较好的盈利。可是在房市放缓的时候，再去投资很可能得不偿失。
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8 m# p# i. j1 ~. O. p  `早前有专家曾指出，多伦多﹑温哥华及蒙特利尔等的城市出现了泡沫的情况。这些地区的发展商为了应付移民及千禧年一代(1980年至2000年出生的人士)迁入城市的需要，建造大量面积更小的公寓单位。
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奥李尔瑞没有直接评论他是否同意这一观点，但是坦承加拿大“一些过于炽热的房地产市场”中有太多的买家及炒家，而至于泡沫究竟什么时候会破碎，时间会告诉我们答案。
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! }) K3 z  \* y% Q) `% f; y作为一名知名的投资人，他表示现在自己不会投资加拿大的房地产市场，具投资评级的短期公司债券是更有吸引力及安全的选择。

2 R% V$ j: J" g奥李尔瑞还建议，有意置业的人可以考虑租屋居住，以能有现金来在其他方面进行投资。

醉酒当歌

嗯要谨慎，毕竟钱很多

prouddolphin

Ping_An

好，等着买1元房

小黄

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呵呵
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- R6 n* M, Y1 f  z看看这位“知名投资人”过去5年的战绩：
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http://www.cantechletter.com/201 ... d-mortgage-startup/
Kevin O’Leary closes failed mortgage startup
APRIL 15, 2014 BY MARK MCQUEEN 0 COMMENTS

6 r- W; E# a7 M. M. h4 [) Y, ^As retail investors continue to suffer via some of his lagging mutual funds, Kevin O’Leary’s brand took another hit last month when he agreed to “surrender” his mortgage licence to provincial regulators.
This came as a surprise, frankly, even to me.
It has been only 18 months since KO put his omnipresent profile behind this new business venture via YouTube. As you may recall, it took several years before investors began to flee his mutual funds in the wake of poor returns in several key asset classes (see prior post “O’Leary Funds appear to shed another 20% of assets in 2012” Jan. 27-13). Since the LCBO was able to market O’Leary-branded wine, it came as no shock that Team Kevin figured that Canadians would also buy a mortgage from KO. Apparently, they didn’t do their market research. As with the mutual fund caper, Canadians expect some value add.
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& U3 q5 _/ n- C* t# Vhttp://www.wellingtonfund.com/bl ... 2012/#axzz2yqzQBjpS
8 }& h7 {+ g6 e$ t8 v5 f+ N8 GO’Leary Funds appear to shed another 20% of assets in 2012
$ X2 I% D: S( }3 X/ t3 X- SPublished on January 27, 2013        by Mark McQueen in Capital Markets, Corporate Governance
! n. V8 \/ M& I( _* F) wThank God he owns a wine label, as there might be some sorrows to be drowned over at O’Leary Funds Management.
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You may recall that Kevin O’Leary admitted last Spring to Globe writer Tim Kiladze, after some blogosphere research forced his hand, to losing $253 million of assets to investor redemptions during the 2011 calendar year. According to O’Leary’s crisis management marketing material, the firm started 2011 off with $1.2 billion under management, and ended 2011 with the exact same quantum. In essence, it appeared as though he raised some money during 2011, experienced $253 million of investor redemptions from his various funds (his figure), and ended up static from an AUM standpoint at the end of it all.  Mr. O’Leary told the Globe at the time that everyone on Bay Street suffered in 2011, although the writer called that explanation into question:

% x# }+ H. ~* _. u( Y& j“We’ve had our lumps just like anybody else,” he said in an interview, noting that many mutual funds have experienced outflows as investors pile into income and balanced funds. However, he failed to acknowledge that his funds, which are dividend-and-yield heavy, are precisely the kinds of funds that investors have been flocking to.

Now that KO has published the December 2012 monthly reports for his 13 remaining mutual funds, and with the benefit of the December 2012 financial reporting for his four lonely closed-end funds, we can do the math and determine how much of his 2011 figure of $1.2 billion under management remains on hand a year later. At least according to my calculations based upon the net asset figures in O’Leary’s published investor updates.

1 T" W0 t/ P# B/ C( ?According to these calculations, O’Leary is now managing $961.1 million, which reflects an AUM decrease of $239 million during 2012. The data is current as of Dec. 31st.

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Read more: http://www.wellingtonfund.com/bl ... 2012/#ixzz3uRk2Lmfl

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