Alberta's boom starts to rival China's

屯民 · 发表于 2006-9-15 20:35

Alberta's boom starts to rival China's
Province's growth seen as sustainable
HEATHER SCOFFIELD

ECONOMICS REPORTER

Alberta is getting so rich that its boom-and-bust cycle could be a thing of the past, with forecasters saying even lower oil prices are unlikely to end its run of prosperity.

A new study by Statistics Canada shows that Alberta's economic boom is unprecedented in Canada, and has put the province's expansion in a league with China's.

And even if the price of oil moderates in the years to come, Alberta's good times look set to continue, Statscan researchers Philip Cross and Geoff Bowlby say.

"Most Canadians are aware of the boom in Alberta's economy, and almost all have directly or indirectly felt its consequences. But the unprecedented scale of Alberta's prosperity is still not widely appreciated," the report says.

"The investment boom shows no sign of ending any time soon."

In nominal terms (not taking into account the effect of rising prices), Alberta's economy has grown by an average of 12.7 per cent every year since 2002, comparable to China's 14.8-per-cent average.

China's growth has been fuelled by volume, however, while much of Alberta's growth has been propelled by steadily climbing prices for energy.

Still, even after rising oil and gas prices have been taken into account, output in Alberta has grown by 4 per cent a year, on average -- far above the Canadian norm.

While the results in Alberta of this sustained boom are frequently commented upon, the Statscan report contains reams of astounding data that underline just how extensive and unique the Alberta boom is in Canadian history.

Never before has one province's economy diverged for so long, and to such an extent, from the rest of Canada, Mr. Cross said in an interview.

Wages, business investment, corporate profits, migration levels, real estate, and consumer prices are all hitting remarkable highs, and the standard of living in the province is beyond most Canadians' wildest dreams.

Alberta per capita GDP -- a common measure for standard of living -- was $66,275 last year, almost double the level a decade earlier, and 56 per cent above the national average.

But while many Albertans fear the good times will quickly come to an end if the global energy market takes a turn for the worse, as happened in the 1980s, the Statscan researchers don't think this will be the case.

That's mainly because energy companies have invested heavily in the oil sands, and they're using sophisticated financial instruments to make sure they can turn a profit for years to come, Mr. Cross said.

"The days of the oil patch being dominated by a bunch of guys called Wild Bill who shut down the rigs any day of the week are gone," Mr. Cross said.

Nowadays, the energy companies "are very risk-adverse," he said. "It's not so much that the economies are different [than booms of the past], but their planning is different.

"The boom-bust cycle we saw in the 1980s is much different now."

Oil sands development has a longer and grander planning horizon than conventional oil, the Statscan paper argues, and investment would continue even if prices were to scale back.

Independent oil and gas producers who appeared at the Peters & Co. Ltd. investor conference in Toronto this week indicated they would have to review their capital expenditure budgets if natural gas prices do not rebound from their steep decline this year.

While the drop in natural gas prices from record levels has had a modest impact on drilling activity, the companies said most projects remain profitable at current prices. Still, lower gas prices will cut into cash flow for those companies who have not aggressively locked in, meaning fewer dollars to spend on exploration and development.

The industry continues to spend at a very high level, and both independent producers and majors expressed serious concerns about cost increases in the service sector and the lack of skilled labour.

Substantially lower oil and gas prices, however, would take some of the public allure out of Alberta, Mr. Cross says, and deter some people from moving to the province.

Since Alberta has a harsh labour shortage, lower migration levels would hurt economic growth. In fact, Alberta's expansion has already been hampered by not having enough labour, and the biggest risk to its economy comes from having a lower supply of workers rather than a lower oil and gas price. "They've basically run out of people. That's putting an upward limit on growth," Mr. Cross said.

[ 本帖最后由屯民于 2006-9-15 20:37 编辑 ]

今天闲着 · 发表于 2006-9-15 22:26

这个经济增长幅度相对于中国的增长，是有着实实在在的支撑的，数据也是没有啥水分的。

还有，省长曾经说过，即使石油经济萧条了，亚省还有占加拿大储量90%的煤矿，所以，亚省的前途还是光明的。呵呵。

醉酒当歌 · 发表于 2006-9-15 23:28

哈哈，合理不合理，只有事实可以说话。大家拭目以待。

猪刀小试 · 发表于 2006-9-16 00:05

今早新闻播了.还是坚信(其实还是希望)亚省经济稳定,否则我肯定失业了.

Z · 发表于 2006-9-16 08:10

炒的高了，就会跌。基本面好，也会跌。

微软的赢利这些年一直不错，还在缓缓增长，但股值可必2000年高点跌了不少，要考虑通胀，根本不可取了。

ligeree · 发表于 2006-9-16 13:38

微软的股票能吃还是能住？
这里的人不买房，不租房住哪里？
大家都住街上然后让房价跌？

原帖由 Z 于 2006-9-16 08:10 发表
" I) q" y+ P: _: L) w炒的高了，就会跌。基本面好，也会跌。: r% P" v/ R; a, b; p+ n7 v
) I) E, g0 p7 c8 B: Q( @- _
微软的赢利这些年一直不错，还在缓缓增长，但股值可必2000年高点跌了不少，要考虑通胀，根本不可取了。

Z · 发表于 2006-9-16 16:01

原帖由 ligeree 于 2006-9-16 13:38 发表& { F* P/ H( h* N* v( M1 v9 G
微软的股票能吃还是能住？
9 ]* A6 E5 w+ d2 |1 m6 O0 ^这里的人不买房，不租房住哪里？
6 D8 O' m# Q$ z- F! w大家都住街上然后让房价跌？( x; P [/ ?/ y9 w0 \8 i# N9 n, [
! K! v+ Q$ h6 L% r3 k( |

我没有给别人任何买与不买的建议。对于醉酒的这种做法，我是理解而不效仿。

别人住豪宅或者流落街头，我根本就不care。反正我有房子住，也从来不给街头乞丐钱的，典型的很mean的人。

我只是在谈经济规律。而能住的房子和不能吃不能住的股票，是遵循共同的经济规律的，这不以你我的意志为转移。

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