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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
' B6 ?7 W0 { S- v2 c: p' m TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
4 x* p3 y% @+ i* e! wmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
, D* T- g' W0 D' ugains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
" f3 r8 ]; B' {" g! Caccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
- h) i9 @: E R2 D) W "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
& w* e" ]+ M# e- j2 d- \said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is5 n' T. e' D. z5 f' d m
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
: b5 G3 R/ H7 C3 Umeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
2 h* z9 x* v- e1 [! J RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
! {9 V" S( ^/ N2 l+ W! zworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
9 ]6 u- | q, J! M& e7 d. Mwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
0 m/ K' P5 a0 w; w* z4 q9 lsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
/ S3 d+ m! p# t& Y; y3 ^ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the, t) g9 A! z' a/ V; A
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
$ g7 x/ h$ ^/ xhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
9 l8 E' Q- c& O! z; c( Y( j% m3 YAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the3 C" y x8 \( q" @. J
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and$ o6 v/ `* \3 n& r, ^* l: u. }
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
8 f2 l1 Q+ n. v$ g# T( ^/ [/ u3 e According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets4 x! b p) i3 }; b8 R
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in& }4 W& ?" F% }( l* ~' a. Q% B
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at# b- y2 N" v2 C; j' _4 z( `
historically depressed levels./ V/ j9 ~5 F8 D$ K- _1 h* ~8 L
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost; U1 A C* x+ R4 \# I4 h- w
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
( u: `% u: t# u" ?prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
' g" ?6 P* j4 [' U4 [hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This/ ^, P+ j; @3 m8 L
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the+ `( B; Z. Z: s1 x6 R7 l& S
months ahead," added Hogue.
& `6 K+ V2 J# a- N1 i4 D* w) ~3 m RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest* ?. A' i' C$ O* i/ B# L x2 I
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
! Q' S1 }! I8 x3 d, E' n" y42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.! S. w- M, Y. f, X! ^
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for9 ]3 D' S5 L. \9 h
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these+ s' r$ h5 y$ H T
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
- u& Z9 @$ |: D" J) w% c& R2 ctakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
* Z2 L8 ]5 I% _8 O The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is5 x0 d. M2 c" t! s0 Z
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property" ^9 Z5 N u1 Y6 Y; T8 {; S1 M
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented# @/ i" g; Z) y* N8 R9 M0 z
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard+ o0 W4 g, M1 C( h
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
' \% e8 O5 T N" GFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
) q' e6 {* y* t2 l# q4 Hcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50* i8 N4 X$ K" {& j1 G2 x6 Q" S- y7 u
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.1 w; X/ u6 D3 L
" W2 n4 b/ z3 M) `, w! { <<
8 m8 J. a/ `- X0 n Highlights from across Canada:
4 ]$ _% |# a. E9 _2 O7 z6 U
& C+ B8 s* k3 f$ C- ?$ Z Y* a }4 d - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
& k" y4 m. I& a- p1 X* x intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
( o9 F3 A8 J- y! B. V# \ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
# K0 V! g6 ]( U: Y* a5 y only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
! S- O+ t/ ]! l/ } since about the middle of 2007.
: [% u5 s; D1 i2 G' I - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
; ]! \2 T0 |) l frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
: v* M: j2 Y# i P* c: b# k decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still" s# _5 B& j' l/ G, y) M0 f$ \" ?
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
! j& P5 \( s- ?, B& _7 }1 M poor affordability levels.3 P. C$ R) R$ Y, Q! ]
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the- v- f- I& l! p: _
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
@# l1 v# K( C4 y0 n" L prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.) ~* q9 F3 b; R ?+ w
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to; w( A7 \- L; y2 h, b" M4 R2 |+ @
minimize any downside risks.) z7 [" \3 |% l; t: T
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
/ E2 J! G" o3 N' g conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is& e" ^/ z, G5 Q' d p0 N: ?
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early: W: @5 Z. A9 }" n9 r
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly3 B4 O' u* |: c
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.& `# p0 S# g. [) W' K4 B* h
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
6 n& h* l( u' J7 J Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
P! A; Q/ H* K4 R6 E far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up( X3 l1 O# K, t9 E$ p
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be8 L: K* S$ }$ R) T6 u$ l
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
, B p" t7 d. F5 I) b' ` modestly in recent years.
2 y3 }" ?* r# ]- E& W - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the. C; F, }0 T- p! g i l+ B
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot0 M. t, H2 R8 D9 f
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward1 `) I, U* }$ Y( Q- ^% Z
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
g( ~1 U' q6 c# _# O. N/ m following two years of deterioration.
7 `/ ^/ [4 Z, s& b0 Z/ g) H >> |
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