听听Garth Turner在说啥？

依勒特

http://www.greaterfool.ca/

" I$ K8 Q: v0 f$ L0 F( H' C' KOuch, 80,000 times
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# C  L' e! l. ]0 \7 N8 q2 jSince becoming the bane of realtors’ collective existence, I ve been peppered with media questions about why prices in Canada have not declined lockstep with with those in the US. The fact we haven’t had a 20%-40% collapse in the values of homes in the GTA or Saskatoon or Victoria is held as evidence things are “different” here.

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They wish.


# g, o2 |7 ^) R- o# X8 L) ~& J) qThe reality is, the Canadian market will crumble for precisely the same reasons the American one did, with similar results. We bubbled. We indebted. We overfinanced. We rolled and gambled. Canada is lagging the US by almost exactly two years, which puts us now where our southern middle-class brethern were in the fall of 2006, just 11 months into the bubble’s bursting. The fact that the American market is still collapsing should give an indication of what lies ahead.

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5 N0 N( x* s- g" n6 K' s! h9 H9 H- ELet me make it clear once again: First sales stagger, then listings explode, then sellers panic, then prices tumble. We’re in stage two. More evidence confirming this was released Friday:

Resale home listings reach record high
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(Globe & Mail) Resale home listings cracked the 80,000 mark last month, the highest level ever reached, according to data released Friday by the Canadian Real Estate Board (CREA).
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New listings on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) soared to 80,147 nationally in July, up 14.4 per cent year-over-year. The number of resale homes that hit the market rose by 1.4 per cent from the month before and 0.5 per cent from the previous record set in May 2008.
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While listings surged, sales slumped by 12.2 per cent year-over-year to 48,748 units in July. The average home price declined by 2.4 per cent to $302,298.
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) t. g7 G' b5 I5 L% eThe significant increase in supply has been the result of declining affordability in a housing market which experienced double-digit yearly price gains from 2002 to 2007, said Craig Alexander, deputy chief economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank.

Unlike in the U.S., a large part of the surge in listings in Canada is coming from people looking to cash in before prices either cool further or decline, a sharp contrast to the forced selling that is taking place in the U.S. as homes go into foreclosure, he added.
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Last month Ontario and Quebec reached new listings records, and the number of existing homes for sale in Manitoba reached their second-highest level this decade.
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Those gains offset a decline in Alberta, where listings continue to decline from a peak hit in March.
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- [6 A7 P1 M% _) ?" N* i9 MListing surged the most percentage-wise in Saskatchewan (up 42.5 per cent), Manitoba (up 31 per cent), and British Columbia (up 21.1 per cent).
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Friday’s data includes all of Canada, and expands on a report of the country’s major markets released by CREA earlier this month.

' g# d& ]( r/ AWhile listings surged, sales slumped by 12.2 per cent year-over-year to 48,748 units in July.

/ j2 W% A8 g) O( d$ u5 oSales plunged the most in British Columbia, where they were down 37.3 per cent, followed by the Yukon and Saskatchewan, which were down 26.7 per cent and 24. 9 per cent respectively. Sales rose the most in Manitoba, which had a 12.4 per cent increase, and in the Northwest Territories (up 11.8 per cent), and Newfoundland (up 11.5 per cent).

- N8 I% j- e) qThe average home price declined by 2.4 per cent year-over-year in July to $302,298. Prices fell the most in the Northwest Territories, albeit on a relatively small base, down by 26.7 per cent to $272,779. Prices also declined in the Yukon (down 9.6 per cent), Alberta (down 5.2 per cent), the Prairie provinces (down 0.9 per cent), and British Columbia (down 0.4 per cent)

  q4 O/ t. T9 A# s: y% h( u9 r7 a# EPrices rose the most in Saskatchewan (up 29.9 per cent), Newfoundland (up 18.7 per cent), and Manitoba (up 13.5 per cent).

These provinces are the most likely to follow Alberta into a slowdown in the coming months, Mr. Alexander said.

3 a9 y4 P9 U6 l  X/ g- qWhile prices will likely drop further in some regions, this should only be troubling for people who bought recently with plans to flip their home quickly, rather than those who have a medium-term time horizon, he added.

依勒特

原因：除房地产经纪机构外，连小孩子都以为房子要继续跌。可真理往往掌握在少数人手里........

老杨

谁来翻译一下，我出200鲜花。

WHMIS

闲来没事，赚点鲜花。非本人观点，智者见智，仁者见仁。
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哎哟80，000下

, k# ?3 H: B' E自从我成为房地产经纪们的集体克星后，一直有媒体问我为什么加拿大的房价没有步美国的后尘同步下跌？事实上，多伦多地区或萨斯卡通或维多利亚的房产价值没有急跌20%-40%的现象说明这里的情况是“不一样”的。
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这只是他们希望的。
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" {: s) C3 @+ O, n3 y5 l0 i事实上，加拿大的市场会因为和美国市场同样的原因崩溃，会产生相同的后果。我们也有泡沫，我们也负债，我们也overfinance（这个我没有恰当的翻译）。我们也在赌博。加拿大市场差不多滞后美国整整两年，这样算来我们正处于我们南邻中产阶级兄弟2006年秋所处的处境，泡沫破裂刚刚11个月。美国市场还在继续崩溃的现实应该说明我们的前景。
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' Q+ j! V% o5 d9 G) Z/ K8 b让我再一次说清楚：首先销售量停滞，接着库存激增，然后卖家恐慌，最后价格下挫。我们正处于第二阶段。星期五有更多支持我的观点的证据发布：

" r$ Z* [0 |' ?+ _* r2 F7 ^转售房屋量创新高

（Globe Mail）根据加拿大房地产委员会（CREA）周五发布的数据，上个月转售房屋数量突破80，000高位，为历史最高。MLS的全国新上市房屋数量激增到80，147套，比去年同期上升14.4%。比前一个月上升1.4%，比2008年五月创下的前一个纪录上升0.5%。
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Listing增加的同时，七月份销售量比去年同期下降12.2% ，至48，748套。房屋均价比去年同期下降2.4%，至$302，298。
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# ^, O* O) `4 W/ E; f! S: O; S4 t4 @Toronto-Dominion Bank 的 Craig Alexander 说，房地产市场经过2002年到2007年每年两位数的（%）价格上涨，购房可承担能力的下降导致了房屋供给量的显著增加。
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5 t3 ]7 h" ^( @+ H4 _6 y他又说，跟美国不一样，加拿大新增的listing的大部分来源于那些想在房价进一步冷却或下跌之前把房产套现的那些人，这跟美国很多房产丧失抵押权比强制出售截然不同。

" i3 H' v3 G# P9 K上个月，Ontario和Quebec的listing都达到新高。Manitoba的待售房产数量也达到了10年来第二高位。
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6 w  W0 M4 Y) M# ^" K* j在Alberta，收入抵销了部分下降，（不懂什么意思，应该指前文提到的两位数的增长）listing继续从3月份达到的最高峰回落。Listing上升最大的包括Saskatchewan（42.5%），Manitoba（31%）和British Columbia（21.1%）。

4 H! ?  L# P7 w8 x6 u周五的数据包括全加拿大，引伸了CREA这个月早些时候发布的关于全国主要市场的一个报告。
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; Z7 h5 n6 r- ~) a$ Y2 UListing增加的同时，七月份销售量比去年同期下降12.2% ，至48，748套。British Columbia销售量下降的最多，达37.3%，然后是Yukon和Saskatchewan，分别下降26.7%和24.9%。Manitoba销售量上升最大，达12.4%，Northwest Territories上升11.8%，然后是Newfoundland，上升11.5%。
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" _5 a) K$ x4 T, @& @9 C/ a+ H; t( l房屋均价比去年同期下降2.4%，至$302，298。Northwest Territories的房价下降最多，尽管是基于一个相对来说比较小的基数，达26.7% 至$272，779。下面地区房价也有下降，Yukon下降9.6%，Alberta下降5.2%，草原省份下降0.9%，British Columbia下降0.4%。

Saskatchewan房价上升最大（29.9%），Newfoundland上升18.7%，Manitoba上升13.5%。

! \0 S. H0 q& C. W' i8 yAlexander先生说，在未来几个月里，上述这些省份最有可能在Alberta之后，出现停滞。
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  G, [- f6 ~! V$ V' h; W5 ]7 s1 G他补充道，虽然在某些地区房价有可能进一步下跌，但这只会使那些最近买了房计划尽快抛售的人陷入困境，而不是那些有中期计划的人们。

萨隆吧斯

老孔雀

翻译的那是相当的好。
overfinanced是不是说透支。后面的那个问题应该是说本省的收入水平高，在某种程度上抵消了这种透支。言外之意，假如那一天这里的收入不那么高了，房价肯定下贴的厉害，那时候就跟别的省份一样换不起贷款。

老杨

200鲜花请查收

WHMIS

overfinance应该不是透支的意思，我不太理解作者的意思。我从网上找到一个这样的解释，还是不太明白。有没有这方面的专家给解释下。
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There is a technique called the "overfinance" which when used by scam artists is considered fraud. The technique in itself is not illegal and can be a very good way for sellers to sell and buyers to buy with cash to both at closing.
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What happens is this:
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The seller lists a house for $125,000
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9 ]5 e7 `7 x2 gThe property is free and clear in this example. The buyer submits an offer requiring the seller to take out a new first mortgage in the amount of $100,000 of which seller keeps $90,000 and rebates $10,000 to buyer at closing. The buyer executes a note in the amount of $35,000 in favor of the seller which is the rest of the sellers equity.
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" r( v3 Z% P: D0 x9 P! ZIf you add that up it amounts to a total of $135,000 and not $125,000. Scam artists would do a deal like this using a false name and information then walk away from the deal with the $10,000 and leaving the seller with a new first mortgage which must be paid and an extra $10,000 on top of it which is the overfinanced amount. That is highly illegal and ruins it for the rest of us.

. c4 T" ?- V/ c3 o% N0 Z6 JNow when I do a deal like this I offer a blanket mortgage on a property I own in the amount of the second note AND the amount of cash I received at closing. This way the seller has some security out of the deal and knows that I can't just walk away from the deal like that.

, P) D$ V5 d; yAs long as the seller knows that the property is being overfinanced and exactly what you are doing and you follow through with your end, it is not fraud. It is a valuable technique to buy a property with zero out of pocket and get cash back at closing.

+ Y3 W' y( m  ^% XAs long as everything is disclosed the deal is legitimate. Remember to be careful not to commit mortgage fraud or scam people out of their hard earned equity and you will be doing the world a favor!

WHMIS

多谢老杨的鲜花！
不好意思，我能用它们干什么呢？

yj151

醉酒当歌

根据银行代表的谈话,楼主的这个帖子应该说的是正在发生的事实.

醉酒当歌

但愿不是callapse.

老杨

原帖由 WHMIS 于 2008-8-29 21:40 发表
2 U/ c! Y4 C5 N4 C+ T; B" R多谢老杨的鲜花！
不好意思，我能用它们干什么呢？

1 X0 Z/ M/ H  t9 R2 X您可以去买道具、玩游戏，也可以送别人鸡蛋、鲜花。。。。。。。

湛蓝

感谢热心的老杨，总是想人所想，方便我们这些看见英文就跳过去的人。
9 w: o4 e$ ?" V6 T) O0 A感谢译者，让我们不再为看不懂所关心的信息而头痛。