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高涨油价的背后
http://www.canada.com/calgaryher ... 6bac62e&k=47214
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5 m4 |( T, J4 I- {# A O/ g. NWhat's behind record oil prices5 U8 r: K( N+ S
Reuters
) `. F% j- l1 u3 q! s h* tPublished: Tuesday, May 06, 2008
3 ^/ x* B: F( G! E8 h/ i& @/ XCrude oil hit an all-time high of $120.36 US per barrel on Monday.
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$ s. s$ G, k" i, _$ O6 vRobust demand for crude oil and a weak U.S. dollar have fuelled the rally from a dip below $50 at the start of 2007. Adjusted for inflation, oil is now above the $101.70 peak hit in April 1980, a year after the Iranian revolution, according to the International Energy Agency.
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* B" q4 }! b$ O$ \Dollar Weakness
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- The fall in the value of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies has helped drive buying across commodities as investors view dollar assets as relatively cheap.
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3 j _; V( ~& X, |- It has also reduced the purchasing power of OPEC's revenues and increased the purchasing power of some non-dollar consumers.& h/ H4 k( J, N* f3 Y- @8 W8 {
* S; B3 K; [! ?! V+ i, T: Q, Y- OPEC oil ministers have noted although prices are rising to record nominal levels, inflation and the dollar have softened the impact.9 G4 r0 r& O' U; I. Y. z
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- Some analysts say investors have been using oil as a hedge against the weaker dollar.) C2 s: N! W; Y4 M
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Demand6 l" q' O$ _! H1 q) {
5 W; Q) W; b) ]' @- While previous price spikes have been triggered by supply disruptions, demand from top consumers the U.S. and China is a main driver of the current rally.
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- Global demand growth has slowed after a surge in 2004, but is still rising and higher prices have so far had a limited effect on economic growth." D8 {$ A- D: X4 I6 B6 d! E
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- Analysts say the world is coping with high nominal prices because, adjusted for exchange rates and inflation, they have been until now lower than during previous price spikes and some economies have become less energy intensive.
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OPEC Supply Restraint6 C( k; q' T- k$ ]& y
9 |1 h% U4 Z$ }- The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, source of more than a third of the world's oil, started to reduce oil output in late 2006 to stem a fall in prices.- Q } e5 z; i! f H. [
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- Fewer OPEC barrels entering the market helped propel the rally and consumer nations led by the International Energy Agency have urged OPEC to pump more oil.
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- Since December, OPEC has left output unchanged, saying there is enough crude in the market. It next meets formally on Sept. 9.
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+ d/ p3 e& H# M8 p+ A& F- Few in OPEC believe there is much it can do to tame a market it says defies logic.
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Refinery Bottlenecks
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- Refiners in the United States, the world's top gas guzzler, struggled with unexpected outages which have drained inventories.8 |/ X' Y0 h- p4 A- n+ z
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Nigeria; [6 {2 `8 } b# o4 l5 ?
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- The supply of crude from Nigeria, the world's eighth-largest exporter, has been cut since February 2006 because of militant attacks on the country's oil industry. H |3 X$ u5 s% N
9 N1 j/ [. Q! I `" c0 o- Oil companies and trading sources have detailed about a million bpd of shut Nigerian production due to militant attacks and sabotage.
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[ 本帖最后由 小福鸟 于 2008-5-6 10:43 编辑 ] |
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