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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts1 v( c/ I3 G; G0 X% B
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4 j: X# \- p( L7 ZGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET- @2 [3 G2 Y" T0 W8 H
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.# Z6 i8 ?4 b2 o, K
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.) J+ `3 `" O; _& Z1 _1 c
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.) e( V. T1 R7 V0 p, K& K
( Y2 D( n2 L- a1 X5 x# gThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”, A9 ?8 u5 C& M0 c
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year." L5 ?$ D g8 [8 q, |/ _
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014., Q% f! d3 @, e1 o
( C7 b/ _0 ^; e4 J# }2 XAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.7 H& Z7 H# ~: d0 r
! O) W# R- _7 l, ], cIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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* @7 J. m) O7 W/ z4 U# L( C5 pCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns5 p* v' \2 D& n0 t
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The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.5 }) u9 w/ Z" y, f7 h" L
" { z% k0 i6 @- @0 m" B9 dCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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" c* ]5 Z# E/ ?" L$ H* r5 pContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.9 N0 k4 h1 C6 k) v' o2 W% u4 {* g3 j9 m
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.- W2 c! G2 ]% n6 R# u5 \* C
7 T! W- T) k3 x i% J5 t3 yMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level." S2 c3 B. {- g! M, d c
: @, {/ N& D+ s. ]# `5 `The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday., s: ?- O8 `# b; J
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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