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楼主: 三言两语

(公开版)爱城房市前景初探 ——2009

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发表于 2009-1-19 20:00 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
高啊, 楼主不但鱼钓得好, 房子造得好,' R% b4 w- P* Q3 T; h! F# w/ t
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还是财经专家啊, 佩服佩服!!! 3 u, P* @: |4 U2 n9 M) l3 ~
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比起很多自称专家的强上白倍, 哈哈!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-1-19 20:10 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 carlzheng 于 2009-1-19 10:44 发表
. c1 Z) F; \! s. {  V1 v4 x不过对于这次全球危机是由于各大央行不肯通过升息来抑制通货膨胀一说不敢苟同。其他的国家我不清楚。中国07年08年一直在小幅加息,而且收缩流动性。其实现在市场上已经有种声音说周小川加 ...

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中国确实在07-08年小幅加息,而且被天荒地对钢铁等初级产品征收出口税,以冷却过热的经济。事实上美加也有加息动作,但关键问题是幅度过小。如果中国当时没有这些举措,现在会更惨。
3 R7 I& U, r' u% n$ J# ~2 f  B中国股市的下跌是必然的,过高的股价是根本原因,其它因素都是次要的。

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另外LZ说的没错,这里房价是和就业率正相关,其实哪里都一样。问题是这里的就业是和石油价格正相关(除非美国哪天不用脏油了,那就永远不相关了,而且从长远来看也不是不可能)。其实就房价来说,我所知的好几套房子已经从最高位下跌30%以上了。短期油价也已经接近30了,当然房价是不是就此止跌,我不敢妄下定论。但是不知楼主的分析结果如何?7 m0 Y4 t$ m1 d6 j( {; J* a" T" T

' P7 E7 C6 K* r/ N; U! k( v6 ~这个问题我已经反复谈过。油价是影响房价的因素之一,但不是直接因素。也就是说:不是油价涨,房价就涨。油价跌,房价就跌。同样,油价止跌,房价并不会因此而止跌。另外,我谈的房价下跌25%是指“年平均价”,不是某几个房子的问题。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-1-19 20:18 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 中国狼 于 2009-1-19 20:00 发表
! x, U4 |1 p# p1 s高啊, 楼主不但鱼钓得好, 房子造得好,( `3 x/ p5 n) z. R
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还是财经专家啊, 佩服佩服!!! ' Y: O/ X' S5 t, j4 b  Y9 Y$ j  K, X2 I5 T

, j, n+ w; ~. `' i比起很多自称专家的强上白倍, 哈哈!
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  j1 H: R# W- }# k2 s' c+ r, X好象是熟人呀。
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发表于 2009-1-19 21:04 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
原帖由 三言两语 于 2009-1-18 21:13 发表 2 `; l  D. X4 s. ^

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正是应你的要求公开的。你是不是应该再送点花呀?
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) h5 b9 m; E. A4 ^( q2 d像我这么铁杆的粉丝,还能找出第二个么?!
/ h) H: p; o% g) _都暴吹你一年了。。。。。。咱俩两清了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-1-19 21:26 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 CO2 于 2009-1-19 21:04 发表
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% x) ^# W0 S* n: }像我这么铁杆的粉丝,还能找出第二个么?!
( R. p3 t' M7 U0 F: {0 T3 F都暴吹你一年了。。。。。。咱俩两清了。

/ r- ^( f* y: m. g% D 多谢!
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发表于 2009-1-19 21:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 三言两语 于 2009-1-19 21:26 发表
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0 ^# \6 O* [. B( H 多谢!
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介孩子又有才华又有礼貌,真是挡不住了。。。。。。。。。。
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发表于 2009-1-19 21:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-1-19 21:57 | 显示全部楼层
感谢公开分享。把我能送的鲜花都献上。
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-1-19 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-1-19 22:54 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-1-19 23:54 | 显示全部楼层
那是相当有才。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。
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发表于 2009-1-20 00:04 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-1-20 12:28 | 显示全部楼层
同言同羽 置业良晨
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相当的油菜!!!
老柳教车
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发表于 2009-1-20 14:15 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
顶!好文章!
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发表于 2009-1-20 15:59 | 显示全部楼层
LZ好文章, 谢谢写出来和大家分享。 那是相当的有才。
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发表于 2009-1-20 19:17 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-1-21 08:45 | 显示全部楼层
同言同羽 置业良晨
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发表于 2009-1-21 11:03 | 显示全部楼层
有房户与无房户的心态是不一样的,看图看数据的靓点也不一样。好自为之吧。祝大家好运!
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发表于 2009-1-21 16:58 | 显示全部楼层
Reviewed your full article, and learnt you are a savvy investor! I appreciate your sharing the insights.; k8 L" g2 m2 C3 Q* g) h- u
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Part 1: Almost completely agree on theory.  k% g! J/ g1 {: E( W* O( `
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Part 2: Not entirely.
5 x* V* O6 @* k" _9 z0 U1 Z' k) P• China’s low manufacturing cost was only the end of the value chains. In other words, China is the price taker, the US Cartels are still the price makers.
# ]* ]$ a' f6 x4 q# E8 z• Fed probably noticed portion of potential risks (not to this extend), has increased the rate to around 5 gradually since 2003. (correct me if I am wrong)
, ?( W" ~. Y  F/ x$ P• Fundamentally, it was the greedy of all industries and consumers spending behavior ill-encouraged/led by the financial industry.! x$ u0 B/ ]" Z0 p" S
• The bubble was not only on the RE sector, but spread to the GDP bubble (70% of US GDP is driven by consuming).
) G# C2 b# @! z; |• In reverse engineering, I will skip part 3 and jump to Part 4:# L( k  t5 n) \" D  E
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Part 4: What decides the home value? (we have the same view of employment and wage) 2 W, n) j% ~1 R. H0 q. S, f. v
• Current and expected rental income (you already contributed a wonderful article on this)./ M3 A' x6 S% n7 E7 d$ u1 Z* B
• The availability and cost of credit. Financial institutions over supplied non-existing money to air the whole nation’s balloon. (Fed has failed in over sighting the banking system). Many times, we find that industry lobby groups are too powerful for government to mitigate its damage to the average Joes. It is the systematic problem within our human beings, no difference in any societies.
+ K0 b/ e9 K" E6 n/ ?• If we agree on the above, then my personal view on the Edmonton RE market is that admitting there has been hot money put into work, the market is still supported by the fundamentals, the healthy employee and relative high wages as illustrated by your GDP chart. Therefore,& c% |- A: m2 q7 H, F1 c2 X
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Part 3: It is driven by the energy sector and its spin off activities.
0 q* J. }. r7 A: h* Z/ W$ r• I agree with you that we might expect another 10% drop in 2009, and may gradually stabilize by late 2009 (who knows).$ I, d( n$ C5 R, L
• But for major projects to take off again or another round of capital budgeting will probably at least 6 moths after the WTI stay above around $60, and increased rig counts after the AECO above $7-7.50.
! T5 g  P8 r4 p8 m# Z4 h• But can anyone predict these prices? When and where are the bottom of the US economy, since we are so dependent on its market?
4 P! k3 R7 T, E/ h+ D8 `  }Part 5: Where are we heading?
; t$ U4 ^! v1 j2 H• I think what happened in the past couple of years was the Edm RE value realization (compare with peers) instead of price manipulation (though had certain amount of hot money working). So the law of supply and demand worked pretty well here and I am expecting it continues, though I agree with you that historically, the price lean towards the average mean shown on your chart, means more dipping ahead.
! ~! M+ j" v& b- D# j• Shall we buy? Judge on your affordability and living needs! If you can find a property you like, you need, you can afford (disciplined) and discount 10%, why not?) {: @2 R9 f+ ]( n5 r- B( A% v
• Shall we wait? Absolutely! If I am not obligated to any commitment, why should I take the risk? It takes even a couple of years for the stock market to reverse the trend, think about the liquidity of RE market. Don’t fight the trend!( q" V# h; t$ S. c
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In the end, we are not isolated from what is happening south the boarder. Will the new US administration have the grit to fix the banking system and economy? We shall see and hope. Will their energy policy affect us? You bet! Below is an article that you may want to read:) r9 {& H7 I: M* c2 t$ T; L0 I
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Our Two Dead Rulers0 d! M/ Y( l8 l" g" Z9 j9 S
by Martin Walker
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http://www.terradaily.com/report ... ead_rulers_999.html
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8 Z, D8 F) `9 L) UFew men become the best historical examples of their own great insights into the human condition. One who did wrote the following lines:
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7 Q7 Z6 T% t$ A! c* I$ F, z"The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed, the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist." & a; _" d% ]" T& L

$ a# B+ E# j% s# W+ _: x& ~The author was British economist John Maynard Keynes, and the key to the world's current financial predicament lies in the argument and interplay between Keynes and another defunct economist, the American monetarist Milton Friedman.
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: N# U8 I* y, E  \4 `1 I" hKeynes was a British Liberal and progressive of the first half of the 20th century who Europeans would now call a moderate social democrat, or in American terms, a centrist Democrat. He believed that governments could and should act as lenders of last resort and use deficit spending to create jobs and haul a country out of depression.
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6 O9 N' ]+ r0 @1 D2 NFriedman was initially a supporter of Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal and worked for it as a young economist. He was also a follower of Keynes, and it was he, rather than Richard Nixon, who originally said, "We are all Keynesians now."
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6 k9 ~2 X; O# d) g' JA moderate conservative, Friedman was appalled by the way promiscuous use of Keynesian policies during non-depression periods had led to inflation and increased government intervention in the economy. Friedman became a critic (but remained an admirer) of Keynes and developed an alternative grand theory of economics that became known as monetarism. Its core contention was that "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon" and that therefore the control of the money supply by the central banks was the key to getting into and out of depressions. 9 X1 m- r; q* `2 R7 j
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"The Fed was largely responsible for converting what might have been a garden-variety recession, although perhaps a fairly severe one, into a major catastrophe. Instead of using its powers to offset the depression, it presided over a decline in the quantity of money by one-third from 1929 to 1933," he wrote. "Far from the depression being a failure of the free-enterprise system, it was a tragic failure of government." ' p/ _1 t) }0 O

% j- _) j3 c# D4 L; @( `5 z3 L; SBroadly speaking, the global economy for the past 60 years has been run by apostles of these two men. Until the coming of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s, most finance ministries and central banks pursued Keynesian policies, sometimes to unsustainable extremes. Thereafter, they increasingly tended toward Friedman's thinking, but probably to equally unsustainable extremes. 4 }+ G, n1 N6 {4 `% S1 v3 w
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One of the most intriguing aspects of the current financial crisis is that we are trying both remedies. So far, thanks to Ben Bernanke at the U.S. Federal Reserve and Mervyn King at the Bank of England, we have pursued Friedmanite policies, flooding the markets with liquidity and shoring up the banking system. Along the way, the Fed in the past year has increased its balance sheet from $700 billion to $2.3 trillion. ! W' N2 g4 \  i% p3 v9 b
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Bernanke, in a 2002 speech honoring Friedman on his 90th birthday, acknowledged the Fed's role in the Great Depression when he said to Friedman, "You were right, we did it. But thanks to you, we won't do it again." 7 j% m  u+ S- t4 B

  H9 W' s! P, z) yBut now comes Barack Obama with his vast $800 billion (or higher) stimulus package, which is straight out of the playbook of Keynes, as expressed in Keynes' famous open letter to the new President Franklin Roosevelt in 1933: "As the prime mover in the first stage of the technique of recovery I lay overwhelming emphasis on the increase of national purchasing power resulting from governmental expenditure which is financed by loans and not by taxing present incomes. Nothing else counts in comparison with this. : h! s# Q/ A; I3 K1 `# g& A* U% A* |

5 g5 q4 K; W0 p5 B"It is beyond my province to choose particular objects of expenditure," Keynes went on. "But preference should be given to those which can be made to mature quickly on a large scale, as for example the rehabilitation of the physical condition of the railroads. The object is to start the ball rolling. The United States is ready to roll towards prosperity, if a good hard shove can be given in the next six months. . ]* h) z+ x, l" d7 t
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"I put in the second place the maintenance of cheap and abundant credit and in particular the reduction of the long-term rates of interest," Keynes added. ! E& V4 y3 A' a6 r
This "second place" priority of Keynes and the unblocking of the credit markets is now what Bernanke's Fed is trying to achieve.
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So the thinking of the two great economic minds of the 20th century is now the lodestone of the key decision-makers who are seeking to haul us out of this recession before it becomes another Great Depression. The problem is that the theories of Keynes and Friedman are not really compatible. ' c2 ~8 e$ d3 w
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Keynes believed that government and only government could, in the last resort, get us out of trouble, and that is also what Obama and most of the Democrats in Congress and most European policymakers believe. 7 ?3 Z2 p1 ]3 ^2 a) P' j0 n
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Friedman, by contrast, was deeply suspicious of government and far from convinced of its wisdom and skill in crafting and implementing economic policy. He once said of himself, "I am a libertarian with a small 'l'" and claimed that his proudest accomplishment was helping to replace conscription with a professional military because the draft was "incompatible with a free society." In a perfect world, Friedman also noted, he would like to abolish the Fed. 5 N( ]: S: g8 f8 I3 V* D

/ H, V2 }5 D: r; q6 H/ e* u$ ZThis may go too far for many of today's Republicans in Congress, but on the whole they share Friedman's suspicion of big government. And since there are sufficient Republican senators to block Obama's legislative programs, it is an open question just how free Obama will be to apply Keynesian remedies.
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- [; y6 Z- k; ^Republicans already have signaled their opposition to much of Obama's planned stimulus program. 9 {# I. H9 U8 W
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For better or worse, the chances of avoiding another Great Depression look like hinging on these two defunct economists and on the coming battle between their political heirs.
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发表于 2009-1-21 18:25 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-1-21 19:59 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-1-21 20:16 | 显示全部楼层
同言同羽 置业良晨
谢谢搂主分享您的好文章!
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发表于 2009-1-22 16:28 | 显示全部楼层

好文! 顶

同言同羽 置业良晨
佩服得很,非常专业呀。
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发表于 2009-1-22 22:47 | 显示全部楼层

回复 50楼 的帖子

挺一下这篇文章,受益匪浅。
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发表于 2009-1-23 10:01 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
楼主太牛,太有才了。
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发表于 2009-1-23 17:25 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 三言两语 于 2009-1-19 20:10 发表
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2 I( g) |* e# v6 B中国确实在07-08年小幅加息,而且被天荒地对钢铁等初级产品征收出口税,以冷却过热的经济。事实上美加也有加息动作,但关键问题是幅度过小。如果中国当时没有这些举措,现在会更惨。
& y; r. K4 T$ J9 j/ R# z; |6 a中国股市的下跌是必然的,过 ...
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$ k8 ~4 n& N& d& |1 E- D楼主写的不错。( K2 W, c: W! C* o& Q
其实说失业率是影响房价的直接因素是很显然的,但没什么很大意义,并不能够吧问题搞清楚。就我的理解,阿省的经济也就靠石油了。所以如说油价不是“直接”因素,那么说是根本因素,或者最重要的因素合适吗?难点在于往失业率背后看,到底根本问题在哪儿?大环境会有什么样的变化,美元,RMB,黄金的此消彼长会怎么发生,会出现什么样的结果,以及要发生在多长的时间框架了。楼主怎么样看?& F) g* b3 l9 \. @4 R
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再加一个,美国狂印钞票救市,你仍旧不看好黄金吗?
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) r- o! P5 _5 X( h6 Y[ 本帖最后由 yeeha 于 2009-1-23 17:28 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-1-23 19:21 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 yeeha 于 2009-1-23 17:25 发表
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其实说失业率是影响房价的直接因素是很显然的,但没什么很大意义,并不能够吧问题搞清楚。就我的理解,阿省的经济也就靠石油了。所以如说油价不是“直接”因素,那么说是根本因素,或者最重要的 ...
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& d' c/ {* C* [$ t" ~% D很有水平的问题!试着讨论一下。
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5 F* M4 O+ I; I- O& r: ]" y我说油价不是“直接” 因素,但油价是阿省的经济支柱,也是影响房价”长期“走势的最重要的因素。阿省经济的最大问题就是过分依赖石油产业了。如果阿省能象沙特那样也好,产油成本极低,卖多少钱都是赚。阿省偏偏又是高成本的油沙,一旦油价下跌,经济就要受到重创,从而失业率走高。" w" @. K. i3 n7 b$ j- X, D2 n
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大环境会有什么样的变化,美元,RMB,黄金的此消彼长会怎么发生,会出现什么样的结果,以及要发生在多长的时间框架了。* T7 ]8 p# a" @2 Z% V. u4 }

, U* O- `8 l. ^1 R9 W6 H黄金的价格应该会保持在US$900附近一个比较长的时间,5-10年。因为美国一定要保证美元的国际货币地位,这一点对美国非常非常重要,美元如果没有了国际地位,美元就可能一夜贬值一万倍,美国就完蛋了。要保持美元的国际地位就要保证其对黄金保持稳定。这也就是为什么美元在历史上三次突然大幅贬值,而之后又长期稳定的原因。如果美元小幅长期对黄金贬值,美元的国际地位就不保了。汇率的问题很难说,影响的因素太多,尤其是RMB。
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$ b1 B& f" C* V! h$ c' `. `( P  w再加一个,美国狂印钞票救市,你仍旧不看好黄金吗?! t1 }6 K6 s7 Y; o" D9 F  w3 |) x
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美国救市救的是其金融体融,是要把断裂的资金链接上,从而使经济能够正常运转起来。钱并没有直接投到流通领域。所以,短期之内不会再贬值。' [% P, y2 s+ G$ K& S

3 |* I# u- W. V7 W) j6 \与美国不同,中国救市是直接投资,拉动内需,以解决因出口减少,而产生的需求不足的问题。所以这有可能使RMB贬值。症状不同,用药也不同,都对症了。
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& ^* H5 \+ ]  L: E' c5 M# h8 W[ 本帖最后由 三言两语 于 2009-1-23 19:23 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-1-23 22:51 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 三言两语 于 2009-1-23 19:21 发表 $ r8 ~# y' g7 C# T) ^7 d$ ]' |8 [" K2 }
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与美国不同,中国救市是直接投资,拉动内需,以解决因出口减少,而产生的需求不足的问题。所以这有可能使RMB贬值。
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佩服楼主的分析能力。赞一个!
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中国贸易顺差仍在增长,人民币仍然是被人为低估的,短期内大幅贬值的可能性不大。但中国几万亿的投资救市要印起钞票来也是天文数字啊。难道人民币今后要对外升值,对内贬值? # Y# O# t; B- y. B  J/ Y! x3 K
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另外,美元对加元大涨了这半年,随着油价见底,也该歇歇了吧。
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发表于 2009-1-24 00:59 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
原帖由 三言两语 于 2009-1-23 19:21 发表 ' @1 P% v9 o( k+ ^! d2 E

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很有水平的问题!试着讨论一下。+ a) }/ s" y/ s* t8 H0 E
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我说油价不是“直接” 因素,但油价是阿省的经济支柱,也是影响房价”长期“走势的最重要的因素。阿省经济的最大问题就是过分依赖石油产业了。如果阿省能象沙特那样也好,产油 ...
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其实我也一直在琢磨这个问题,但是琢磨半天也琢磨不出门道来。 美国是很强大,但是我觉得你有点高估他的能量了。他操纵黄金价格这么多年,所谓自作孽不可活。他也到了力不从心的时候了。我不相信黄金的价格仍然是一直他说了算的。这次他栽的这么狠,也许不用5-10年黄金就会潜龙腾渊了
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不过黄金可能也是中国政府的敌人。就像现在中国政府可能会和美国一样不希望油价猛涨或者通货膨胀一样。从这一个出发点来讲,也许中国看在那么多美元储备的份上会帮美国一把,打压黄金。
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发表于 2009-1-24 10:47 | 显示全部楼层

爱城房价的降幅达21%

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