 鲜花( 26)  鸡蛋( 0)
|
Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
) d; F: y4 n' ?' F B1 _
5 I) _+ T# O3 {9 i) ORepublish Reprint4 C9 s# O# n6 B" B( [' O$ M
Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
! {' r9 o4 z: ?/ NMore from Gordon Isfeld
1 Z8 F7 v9 b1 h9 K! qLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.$ q ^ x. N( q7 D% u6 x. X
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants. Y$ x/ h4 M7 q4 u
Twitter Google+ LinkedIn Email Typo? More# J. e( ]+ Z$ F1 o& ^/ d
OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.& B0 ]* d9 ]! s. b: Q, |0 K# C
) ?8 q; b- Q$ G% l0 l
That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
1 E% Y- A2 g/ Q3 H/ Y$ v3 D" A A: u4 Z8 ^- H- c4 S
In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”6 S7 ^' A, z1 { ~7 z% C: N2 K
4 ]+ p1 F T: a4 A! F/ F
Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
/ g6 u( H8 l2 B3 R' F( {* F4 B, y7 `3 P$ ?( h
“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.' P/ I8 s$ g4 V5 m$ p' R+ n
+ e/ a9 `. s, n+ Y/ `- c# D1 s) e9 w- O% iAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
. |- j, V& N) ]& l1 o' X, P6 @9 d
+ Q3 }0 z8 a2 V% F9 RHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.1 n) ]2 m- D$ F
& i5 V- R/ x# |" H# UIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.& A5 u) j; B+ y
# q4 f/ b" c; u+ V8 x0 yRelated
5 \5 x: X1 r9 kCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
1 a% \1 r4 p! d8 ^7 o* ~Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
" q0 G1 @2 ?8 x, d% }The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
5 z) V" ]! X F2 _% Y5 |7 t* r% \& O2 yAdvertisement) i; Z: [! b# j" ^, S" Z4 [
/ z, ~$ i3 j; w1 \# `
/ K( ?+ x7 S4 ^! w1 j: [The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
' ^& Q9 |- ^: ^3 a$ _4 P
7 f; ~0 ]) g) |* D3 k9 a: c“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
4 K9 S$ ^$ F5 _4 ~: y2 J' L6 v0 B! A) p; r7 n
For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.# `( F* d: D3 Y( L
3 j# p# h* R r% O) q7 \) NCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
7 s" S5 k" e) x
- o5 J- g% b; w4 t1 V: oContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
) N1 U' C5 J, v
! V4 J& C# G6 T' t# Z1 \' JThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.8 p* D& K! T9 x1 U! d9 S+ c. Y
+ A- P; w8 K' l* ^3 M& y: k
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
* d4 @6 K) @5 [5 x: V& K9 C1 N
- p5 y6 Q. J! K5 V' XThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.( e( P4 P3 ?: n) l0 r9 b
: ^( @9 A! k* {+ V% Q: ?7 D- \“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
) N1 ^8 \; T2 k. B9 V: B
' i) G1 q5 I. {- ETotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.) a+ C4 x, \3 g9 q# Y9 f3 }
' \1 v1 C9 b5 l/ G4 R“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
|
楼主: yxia
狗仔卡
发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
显身卡
