Morgan Stanley predicts oil prices could drop to $43 US a barrel next year

hlj007 · 发表于 2014-12-8 13:00

TSX down almost 500 points as oil slumps to new multiyear lows
Morgan Stanley predicts oil prices could drop to $43 US a barrel next year
By Pete Evans, CBC News Posted: Dec 08, 2014 8:54 AM ET Last Updated: Dec 08, 2014 2:19 PM ET

Oil prices have tumbled from around $105 this summer to below $65 today, and stock markets heavy on energy shares are starting to follow suit.
Oil prices have tumbled from around $105 this summer to below $65 today, and stock markets heavy on energy shares are starting to follow suit. (The Associated Press)

Oil price drop creates winners and losers
Oil price collapse means lower gas prices for motorists
Oil price falls below $70 US as OPEC leaves output unchanged
Oil price predicted to fall to $60 unless OPEC cuts back
The Toronto Stock Exchange shed almost 500 points points or three per cent of its value on Monday as oil prices continued their slide and a major U.S. investment bank said there is plenty more downside left.

The TSX composite index was off 470 points to below 14,000 points late in the trading day. The sell-off came on the first day of trading after the index lost about two per cent last week.

'Investors are selling everything.'
- David Cockfield, portfolio manager
Basically everything was lower, as banks, tech stocks and industrials joined commodities in sliding into the red. (The only exception was health care, which was clinging to a small gain on the day.)

The TSX is now at its lowest point since the middle of October, and Canada's benchmark stock index is now only up by just under four per cent since the start of the year.

Get used to $70 oil, Goldman Sachs says
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"The psychology is extremely negative. We’re back into panic mode,” said David Cockfield, managing director and portfolio manager at Northland Wealth Management. “The market in Canada is becoming more and more irrational.

"People are selling because the market is down and they think it’s going to go down further,” he said. “They’re probably going to be right because they’re selling."

Cockfield, who is waiting on the sidelines until the dust settles, said the oil and gas sell-off has unnerved the market and now "investors are selling everything."

Bleak Chinese data prompts worries

One of the big catalysts was disappointing data out of China showing the country is buying less goods from overseas — and shipping out less to the rest of the world.

China's imports shrank unexpectedly in November, falling 6.7 per cent, while export growth slowed, fuelling concerns the world's second-largest economy could be facing a sharp slowdown.

China's crude oil imports rose nine per cent in November from October to 6.18 million barrels per day, suggesting the country may be boosting its reserves.

"If one looks at the overall economic indicators, they are all showing a picture of China which is stagnating rather than having strong growth," said Olivier Jakob, oil analyst at Petromatrix in Zug, Switzerland.

Oil price likely headed below $60, analyst predicts
ANALYSIS: The winners and losers of cheap oil
That's bad news for a country like Canada, which has long been criticized for being heavily dependent on shipping natural resources to the rest of the world.

Oil prices keep sliding lower, with Brent Crude for January down $2.22 at $66.85 a barrel by 12:10 GMT, having fallen $2.30 to $66.77 US — its lowest since October 2009.

Oil was selling at $105 a barrel as recently as July, but the price has been falling ever since.

U.S. crude was down $1.60 at $64.24 a barrel, after hitting a session low of $64.14. The U.S. contract, also known as West Texas Intermediate, touched $63.72 last week, its lowest since July 2009.

In a report dated Dec. 5, U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley said oil prices could fall as low as $43 a barrel next year.

"Without OPEC intervention, markets risk becoming unbalanced, with peak oversupply likely in the second quarter of 2015," Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Longson said.

"Given continued oversupply and still no sign yet that U.S. oil production starts to show any reaction, perhaps prices will continue to head lower," said Carsten Fritsch, senior oil and commodities analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

mcu003 · 发表于 2014-12-8 13:45

My God!

prouddolphin · 发表于 2014-12-8 15:58

醉酒当歌 · 发表于 2014-12-12 09:04

今天58刀了，照这架式，43不是完全不靠谱，

citytower · 发表于 2014-12-12 11:59

Edmontonian18 · 发表于 2014-12-12 23:02

Anything is possible. As individual consumer, you figure out a way to handle your financial affairs prudentially.

醉酒当歌 · 发表于 2014-12-13 01:17

现在油价应该47块4

醉酒当歌 · 发表于 2014-12-13 01:17

纠正下，57块4

醉酒当歌 · 发表于 2015-1-6 07:50

今天己48.47刀

醉酒当歌 · 发表于 2015-1-6 16:44

今天47刀了

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