按揭利率至最低 房市完全进入买方市场 ZT

weixuanz

昨日（周二），位列本国五大商业银行之一的满地可银行（BMO）召开了房地产市场现状及前景研讨会。会上，专家们讨论了自入春以来，本国各主要城市的房地产市场皆出现“小阳春”的现象。不少专业人士纷纷表示，如今本国房市已经完全进入买方市场：不仅按揭率低、房价低，上市房源也愈来愈充足，已经到了买家、尤其是首次购房者入市的好时机。

皇家地产公司旗下的Brookfield地产服务公司行政主席索珀(Phil Soper)在会上回顾道，由于先前本国房地产市场过热，高昂的房价和抢offer现象让很多首次购房者望而却步。买方中坚力量的萎缩使本国房市面临“釜底抽薪”（sand in the gears）之困，遂进入接连数月的调整期，房价、销售量双双大幅下滑。然而，随着价格逐渐跌至人们的心理价位，再加上本地银行屡次下调按揭率，不少潜在的购房者开始回头。

按揭利率已降至最低？

$ \# R& t- N7 u. e& [' u1 ?2 W会上的专家表示，自去年10月全球金融危机爆发以来，联邦央行在短短的4个月内，采取了前所未有的力度将利率大幅削减至0.5%，位居历史最低点。受央行的影响，本国各大商业银行也纷纷在非常短的时间内调低按揭利率，下降的速率创下了自上个世纪30年代全球经济大萧条以来最快的记录。
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目前，本国各大银行的按揭率已经接近4%，在一年前7.5%的基础上下调了相当大的幅度。例如，满银（BMO）刚在本月将其5年期固定按揭率下调至4.15%，这意味着贷款人的月供额比利率最高的时期（2007年夏秋季）低了三分之一。
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1 [2 A' |2 E3 b+ H2 {% z6 Y( Y0 x& U7 Z满银资本市场(BMO Capital Markets)资深经济学家加蒂耶里(Sal Guatieri)提醒众人，目前联邦央行的利率已经接近零点，而本月21日的议息会议应不会再次出台降息举措。因此，本国各大商业银行的按揭率进一步下降的空间已经非常小，现在很可能已经是最低点。
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鉴于这种情况，不少专家都表示，现在已经到了房产买家、尤其是首次购房者入市的好时机。不过，也正如21世纪不动产总裁劳拜（Don Lawby）所提醒，全国各地市场的具体行情不太一样，买家在做最终决定之前仍应仔细考察，这样才能让自己获得最大利益。
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房价究竟还能降多少？
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此外，房价也是吸引潜在买家的另一个优势。从目前的数据来看，本国二手房的平均售价比07年中期降了14%。不过，关于日后房价究竟还能降低多少，与会专家并没有一个统一的观点。
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( [' k7 L+ _, @7 j例如，多伦多房产公司Brad J. Lamb Realty Inc的总裁拉姆（Brad Lamb）表示，进入三月份以后，房地产市场的行情出现明显好转：销售量仅比去年同期降低了7%，在前几个月45%乃至55%的年降幅得到了极大改善；同时，3月份房屋平均销售周期为39天，也远远高于2月份的45天。基于这些因素，拉姆颇为乐观地表示，房地产市场的调整已经“见底”，房价不久就可以出现回升。
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不过，也有很多业内专家并不如此乐观。满银经济学家加蒂耶里预计，本国二手房屋的价格在今年会“适度地”下降（moderately further），累计降幅可达20%左右。但他同时又指出，本国房地产所面临的调整并非“美式的”崩溃。从次贷危机开始，美国的房价已经下跌了30%，但是加拿大应该不会遭遇同类问题。
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Brookfield公司行政主席索珀也持类似观点。他表示，美国的房地产萧条还远没有结束，它将长期影响加拿大的房价。索珀同时指出，现在全国大部分的房地产市场仍是供大于求，因此未来2年内即使房价上涨，其速率和幅度也不会很大。

依勒特

Now this sounds like a fun and illuminating media event:
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* K0 N: ^+ [, u% l9 Q7 }2 mTORONTO, April 13 /CNW/ - With Canada’s real estate market slowing over the past year and mortgage rates near record lows - sellers and buyers are looking for answers on what moves they should be making. Media are invited to discuss the real estate environment with an expert panel:

<<
-   Is the market opening doors for first-time homebuyers?
9 k$ d1 }. ~0 O; b; T6 K4 R-   Is now the right time to buy or will prices continue to fall?
4 X# J6 P  Q0 K9 o( A-   What trends are appearing in the market?
-   Where is the housing market heading?
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6 d- X. f. v' L9 m* HWHAT:  Bank of Montreal Real Estate Panel

7 i8 ]. m" d* q! g3 A1 u' E5 T$ d; ~WHO:   John Turner, Director, Mortgages, BMO (moderator)
; A; V7 g9 O: e7 g; ~, G0 uSal Guatieri, Senior Economist, BMO
Brad Lamb, Brad J. Lamb Realty Inc.
Donald Lawby, President and COO, Century 21 Canada
Phil Soper, President and COO, Brookfield Real Estate Services

WHEN:  Tuesday, April, 14, 2009 8:30a.m. - 10:30a.m. (light breakfast provided)

Sadly, I’d predict the media benches will in fact be full Tuesday morning at Hotel Le Germain there on Mercer Street in downtown Toronto. Swallowing propaganda (along with those fabulous croissants) as news content, reporters will filter back to their recession-wracked outlets to file copy.
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* t& X  t3 ~$ X- \+ _/ p  B& KAmong the headlines:
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2 {. {; {& t* N, S) h0 H* First-time buyers can’t resist cheap rates, bargain prices (Globe)
* Economists predict stable housing markets (Star)
7 |  D( i) G0 d, a( \6 z; }4 a* Despite unemployment, recession, real estate rising (Post)
' L* I$ E9 C2 A) I3 y- S6 p* Homes grow a set! (Sun)
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This is called ‘marketing’, not news. Two executives from one of the country’s biggest mortgage lenders. Toronto’s condo king, in the middle of flogging a new project. And the heads of Century 21 and Royal LePage. Granted, they are all trying to pump and primp and pimp the market – that’s their job – but the really distressing part is how it will be reported as “expert” opinion on a commodity being sold to naive first-time buyers.

% o# m5 b* H9 X+ H, RNo wonder traditional media in Canada, as in the States, is down for the count. So long as newspapers depend so heavily on developers, real estate marketers, furniture stores, electronics marketers and others in the home-frothing business, objectivity is impossible. As I reported a while back, when the country’s biggest newspaper threw its real estate editor overboard for ticking off advertisers with real journalism, the die was cast.
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) ]0 Q1 ^3 ]8 U- y  T! tThe future of real estate is mixed at best, definitely troubled and potentially disastrous. The faux Spring market will turn into a bitter summer and a regretful autumn, with sales levels again plunging as it becomes clear this recession is not ending and the river of jobless continues to swell. Subsequent years will only find it worse, for reasons contained in the previous post. Rising mortgage rates alone (a 100% certainty) will imperil a market whose only momentum comes from real estate jingoism and bogus media conferences. After that, demographics and the new energy crisis pretty much guarantee this is the last place average people will make money, and the best place they’ll lose it.
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Can you imagine a leading brokerage-paid economist, the managing director of a securities firm and the CEOs of three publicly-traded corporations calling a presser to forecast higher stock prices and urge people – especially novice, first-time investors - to buy in now with 95% leverage?

: I: t/ m: @" R1 M, B- ?3 LOf course not. That would be illegal.
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4 f8 p. n) z4 K7 U) I7 {As this should be.
4 B, b2 E+ ~( E# MJust in - news that isn't.Time is right for first-time homebuyers, housing experts say
By The Canadian Press

( H$ q4 C0 |) A. V2 T; \2 H1 ^! JTORONTO - Panelists at a BMO real estate conference say there is no doubt that now is a great time for first-time homebuyers.  President and CEO of Brookfield Real Estate Services Phil Soper says affordability in many parts of the country is improving for the first time in a long time.  He says the housing market has shifted from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market, which is good news for someone looking to buy their first home.  And BMO economist Sal Guatieri says the average mortgage payment has fallen one-third or $600 from its peak.  He says the average resale price of a home has fallen 14 per cent from its peak and will fall “moderately further” this year.

5 L. k9 p7 X% ^4 v! n: tAnd this… and this… and this… and this…. and this…
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3 C& S* _$ l7 k  ~) }; \2 ^http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/13/hit-run/