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On a day when the government of Canada was getting into the used car warranty business, when markets were falling because they had rashly risen, when CanWest Global got a two-week stay of execution, and mighty Alberta posted its biggest deficit ever, I was walking through Toronto airport.
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“I hate to say it…”
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5 I/ Z- B8 N1 O% HAnd I heard a voice behind me, just as I was wondering what it would cost to buy my car back from the parking garage (it was $244).
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: G% h# `. C6 I% H8 q7 y" k& y) O“…but, Turner, you were right…”
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# N0 f @7 I, i9 l$ BTurning around in the crowd’s swirl, I saw one of the country’s top economists dragging his suitcase along and giving me a smile. This guy, I recalled, took some delight one year ago in telling reporters that if I wasn’t an idiot, at least I was a fool. Or maybe just an extremist. No way, he’d asserted, that Canada was going to have a real estate correction.: _3 S) I! U. z; T! o+ x4 a
2 E8 ]7 S' u4 x5 m8 w) KAbout this time yesterday another bunch of economists, this time at the TD Bank, was publishing an opus on the housing market. The forecast: Home prices will continue to erode, falling more throughout 2009 and then flatline.
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# E$ i+ E/ Z( H0 d" q* {( J) eHmmm. Where have we heard that one before?
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Meanwhile in Calgary the woman in charge of the local real estate board looked at the latest stats and clicked her heels. “The Calgary market is slowly shaking off its winter blues,” said Bonnie Wegerich. “We’re moving into a more balanced market.” Not far away, LePage head flogger Phil Soper was telling eager reporters that first-time buyers were flooding back into markets across Canada. And in Toronto, local realtors were celebrating a 7% decline in sales over March of last year, saying that is a sign the corner has been turned. Said a spokesguy: “A greater number of households have taken advantage of increased affordability in the housing marketplace.”! _% h/ [+ s3 K3 y5 o' r
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So, what do we make of all this? House sales rising in several key cities. Calgary prices stable from the previous month. Toronto prices down but a smidge from a year ago. Sales in Vancouver during March up 31% over February.
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But at the same time, the auto industry is clearly headed for Armageddon. Job losses will be piling up steadily until unemployment hits double digits. Brand name companies like CanWest and Air Canada are on the path to bankruptcy. Governments everywhere are vaulting into debts and deficits, guaranteeing higher taxes, fewer services, or both. And interest rates have crashed, meaning they can only go up, making life more expensive.( O! ?* Y# L3 L* A
$ F7 T% C1 L8 n5 i8 q( vWhy, then, are more people buying houses?$ W6 \6 j0 x1 v& n2 G8 U
0 r( d- P4 V7 w- p3 h7 Y: SThe simple answer is that with mortgages at 3% and homes 18% more affordable in Calgary or Kelowna than they used to be, affordability is less of an issue. People who wanted to buy, but could not, can now.
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The more complex issue is that lots of those first-time buyers, so crucial to the real estate industry, are being cattle-prodded into action. First the feds said buyers could raid $25K from the RRSPs, tax-free, to buy a home. Then Ottawa chipped in a $750 gift to help them close. Then go-boys like Soper and his twin at Re/Max churned out media releases about young buyers, cranking up the peer pressure. Then the mortgage lenders, the real estate boards and the media jumped on the bandwagon. I’ve even heard that CKNW, Van’s hardest-news station, is running PSAs telling people that now is the time to buy. And I have not even mentioned Sikorsky parentals.
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But the real reason homes are changing hands is an eternal one: greater fools. People who pay scant attention, who are moved by headlines and still think kitchen hardware actually matters. These poor sops believe we are at, or close to, the bottom of the market and that cheap mortgages mean they can afford a home. Therefore they must have one. It will only rise in value. They can’t lose.
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Sadly this is just what a lot of US buyers believed when they were offered cheap subprime mortgages – don’t worry if rates rise later, since house values always rise. Can’t lose.
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I won’t run through all the reasons why house prices will be lower at Christmas than they are now. You need only remember one – jobs. And when it comes to a number of years ahead of stagnant real estate values and lost equity, nobody should be surprised. Our future holds higher taxes, less disposable income, rising interest rates, energy inflation and years of recovery from the current corporate and economic plague./ G; E* G% s* g8 d' `' C
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There will be some fine places to make money. This ain’t one of them.1 Z8 ]$ G2 ]& c @ ^9 x6 W* ^
% R% ], E2 ]9 K( @& r+ ]Finally, I would like you to cut the following words out and tape them to the fridge. They were penned by those high-priced eggheads at TD who, I’d say, have been skulking this blog:% r/ u$ R" B1 s) l1 z3 }
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“Over the long-term, the value of housing cannot exceed what households are able and willing to pay to live somewhere.”' t' x! C6 n! q
: a- t; ~7 p; K" C, g9 l, L. IAmen, brothers & dudes.9 @6 c$ c. @& w2 H
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/7 ^* T% Z& z$ Q: {; z
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-8 16:26 编辑 ] |
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发表于 2009-4-8 15:24
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