Alberta Population on the Rise Again

qwlimited

Thanks very much to "itchy" one of our frequent commenters who pointed out this article from Finance Alberta which shows that Alberta experienced strong in-migration in the second quarter of 2008.
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    "Alberta’s population growth continued to be the highest among all provinces in the midyear of 2008, though slower than the previous twelve months. During the second quarter of 2008, Alberta had strong net inflows of people in both interprovincial and international migration, and a substantial influx of non-permanent residents."

I put together a little chart, to show the trend over the years:

- y- g! g; E7 NNetmigration

The report states that Alberta's population increased by 74,300 people between July 07 and July 08 - a growth rate of 2.11% which is 80% higher than the national average (BC and SK were next at 1.65% and 1.63%).

Alberta gained 6,370 residents through inter-provincial migration in the second quarter, compared to 4,680 in Q2 07.
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2 j( @7 W4 `0 ?3 y    "The bigger interprovincial gain in this quarter was primarily attributed to the higher net inflow of migrants from Ontario (3,860) and Quebec (2,160), and at the same time the net outflow of Albertans to  Saskatchewan (540) and British Columbia (160) was slowing down."
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Of interest, the total annual interprovincial net-migration for Alberta for the past five years:
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3 s8 W% q" P5 n7 C8 Q5 R9 J8 s2004         20,877
# W% E: p+ C  {+ T/ J2005         43,418
2006         46,239
2 l9 ^! M9 M$ _+ e2007         9,921
2008         9,491

: N+ K  |" x$ a3 oIn other words, there have been almost as many people move to Alberta in the first half of this year, as there were all of last year.

So, how did all this affect real estate in Edmonton? The relationship is between net migration and inventory, and prices is very strong. First, when prices became too high, the net-migration dropped extremely quickly (the rose coloured line), and immediately after inventory began it's rise:
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2 C3 a, i6 O9 d0 z2 \, H' TImmigrationandprice

Having a look at inventory, sales and net-migration, you can see the direct correlation between dropping net-migration and rising inventory:
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Immigrationanddemand
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Keep in mind the above migration numbers are for the entire province, while the real estate stats are for Edmonton only.

laosan

好消息
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如果０６／０７年维持以前的数字的话（四万六而不是九千九），两万多的库存房子分分钟被多出的三万多人抢光。

ZJDX

原帖由 laosan 于 2008-10-9 20:43 发表
好消息

' ]8 z- p9 I- k% x; W如果０６／０７年维持以前的数字的话（四万六而不是九千九），两万多的库存房子分分钟被多出的三万多人抢光。

; n+ L. a1 g% u. v, s0 g0 p是啊,抢房子的情景即将重现,现在贷款利率这么低,不贷白不贷.