Calgary Housing starts plunge 56%

水管工

Calgary area at lowest level since 1991
Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald
6 B7 F5 x* s7 JPublished: Friday, May 09, 2008
4 M7 a3 y" n6 D# |* L$ u) i' ?  H8 a8 ]Calgary area housing starts for single-detached homes in April plunged by more than 56 per cent compared with a year ago.

Through a third of the year in 2008, single-detached starts in the Calgary census metropolitan area have not been this low since 1996. And for the month of April alone, this year's number was the lowest since 1991.
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"New home sales are competing with a record level of active resale listings in a lower demand environment and this is impacting new home construction," said Lai Sing Louie, senior market analyst in Calgary for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.
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"This is a very competitive market for new home sales as market conditions favour the buyers. Lower demand is caused by weaker net migration and slower move-up buying is resulting in fewer new home sales."
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He said after massive home construction in 2006 and 2007, there are new homes for sale on the resale market that have never been lived in and "that tells you the cleansing of the investor and the speculator leaving the market."
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"They're still not out of the market completely," said Louie.
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  k2 c* u. b  m- M' ?' t2 PAs of Thursday, the Calgary Real Estate Board was reporting on its website active MLS listings for single-family homes in Calgary metro at 6,968 dwellings.
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Preliminary figures released Thursday by the CMHC show housing starts in the Calgary CMA for single-detached homes fell to 336 units last month from 769 units in April 2007, a 56.3 per cent decline. Year-to-date, single-detached starts have fallen to 1,403 units this year from 2,486 units last year, a 43.6 per cent drop.
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( b9 w7 |" p5 Y' i2 \The Calgary CMA includes the city, Airdrie, the Municipal District of Rocky View, Chestermere, Cochrane, Irricana, Beiseker and Crossfield.

Coming off the boom years of 2006 and 2007, the new home construction sector for single-family homes is experiencing a "correction" today, said economist Frank Atkins with the University of Calgary.
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; f+ e. Q. b) }: X* t2 }% L! f"Going back to 2006, people were coming here in droves and so the new housing industry was backed up. They couldn't keep up," said Atkins. "Everyone was saying at the time, there's going to have to be a correction and here we are. I would look at this as a correction, not as a catastrophe."

% o; C- P* T2 JHe said there is no reason to panic because the economy here is still strong.

1 V( j& f; ^0 R2 J3 C# A: z! P% lWhile the single-detached market continues to decline, multi-family starts remain at a good pace. Multi-family starts, which include semi-detached units, rows and apartments, increased to 760 units this past month from 601 in April 2007, a hike of 26.5 per cent. Year-to-date, they show a 162.3 per cent jump to 4,349 this year from 1,658 units a year ago.

"The growth rate of multi-family starts through the first third of this year will likely pull back as the pre-sales needed for large condominium projects will be challenging in a market that currently favours buyers," said Louie.

. `4 I# }& j  g/ a! A. b# H( UIn the Calgary region, total housing starts, combining multi-family and single-detached, were down 20 per cent in April (1,096 units) compared with a year ago (1,370). But so far this year, total housing starts have increased by 38.8 per cent over last year, going from 4,144 units to 5,752.
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The CMHC said total April housing starts in Alberta's seven largest centres decreased to 2,034 units in 2008 from 3,658 units in April 2007, a plunge of over 44 per cent. Nationally, urban starts in April totalled 17,030 units, down three per cent from a year earlier.

"With growing signs that deteriorating affordability and mounting economic uncertainty are cooling residential real estate markets in many parts of Canada, it's only natural that new home building also moderates," said Robert Hogue of BMO Capital Markets in a research note on the housing starts data.
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8 o( r' G0 z) j; S' q2 D"While a U.S.-style meltdown is unlikely on this side of the border, the faster decline in singles starts in the past several months is cause for close monitoring."
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Starts in Alberta have been on a downward trend since early 2007 and stood in April at their lowest since January 2005, said Pascal Gauthier, an economist with TD Bank Financial Group, in a research note.

+ U0 {& U- ]4 G8 }+ G: h; B"This province accounted for much of the elevated level of Canadian housing starts in 2004-06 as it played catch-up with a population inflow, and is now adjusting to a lower, more sustainable level of starts."
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mtoneguzzi@theherald.canwest.com
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Calgary area April housing starts
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Single-detached Multiple Total

( F" r5 @$ n* sApril 2008 336 760 1,096
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4 [: x  D, u; `( Q# |1 |8 W) g5 O3 S' bApril 2007 769 601 1,370
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% Change -56.3 26.5 -20

/ M' z) _9 D9 `Year to date 2008 1,403 4,349 5,752
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# X  j  r( P0 l! C6 y: w7 ^Year to date 2007 2,486 1,658 4,144

  ]0 r- Y4 E" A9 ?; y. a, d% Change -43.6 162 38.8

Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

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