加拿大经济开始走向衰退

小福鸟 · 发表于 2008-5-1 06:47

http://www.canada.com/edmontonjo ... 7793179&k=39031

Canada dips closer to recession
Decline in manufacturing a major factor
Eric Beauchesne, Canwest News Service
Published: 2:02 am May 1,2008
OTTAWA - Canada has edged closer to a recession, while the United States appears to have skirted one -- at least so far.

The Canadian economy shrank unexpectedly by 0.2 per cent in February, rather than expand by 0.2 per cent as many analysts had expected, as weakness in manufacturing deepened and broadened and spread to the wholesale sector, Statistics Canada reported Wednesday.

"It does look like we are very close to recession possibility here," said Ted Carmichael, economist at JP Morgan, which cut its projection for economic growth in the first quarter to zero in the wake of the disappointing February report. The Bank of Canada last week forecast economic growth of 1.4 per cent this year.
"While most of the discussion has focussed on the U.S., which most agree is in at least a mild recession, with growth here stalled and possibly even contracting in the first quarter, and starting the second quarter off on a very weak note, I don't think you can rule out a recession in Canada either," Carmichael said.

"The major surprise was the 0.7-per-cent decline in manufacturing output, which occurred despite an 8.1-per-cent jump in motor vehicle manufacturing," he said

Carmichael noted that auto production here reportedly dropped sharply in March, which does not bode well for the final month of the first quarter. Meanwhile, in February most other manufacturing industries also contracted.

"Softening demand in the U.S. will clearly have an impact on Canada," Industry Minister Jim Prentice noted in responding to the weaker-than-expected economic report card.

"Right now, our auto industry, in particular, is tied to American consumers and there has been a softening of demand," Prentice said. "That cycle will change over time. We're confident of that."

But the weakness in Canada in February was widespread, and included the domestic side of the Canadian economy, with notable declines in retail trade, the energy sector, and the transportation and financial sectors.

The energy sector fell 0.9 per cent in February. The oil and gas extraction industry contracted 0.7 per cent, dragged down by a decrease in natural gas extraction. A drop in gas output is widely forecast by Alberta industry analysts.

The erosion is seen as a delayed effect of reduced drilling since early 2006, in a lull brought on by unfavourable prices and exchange rates.

The gas production slippage is also seen as a positive development for future industry activity. Drilling is already making a comeback as reduced supplies contribute to a price recovery, industry associations report.

The production of petroleum increased while the price of oil reached record high levels. Exports of crude oil were up substantially.

The output of the mining sector excluding oil and gas edged up 0.1 per cent in February. The decline recorded by the non-metal mines was offset by the gain posted by the metal ore mines. Support activities for mining and oil and gas extraction contracted 1.4 per cent.

Meanwhile, there were reports of unexpected strength south of the border, including overall growth in that economy in the first quarter, and an increase in private sector employment last month.

[ 本帖最后由小福鸟于 2008-5-1 07:51 编辑 ]

依勒特 · 发表于 2008-5-1 10:56

Ontario house market still robust, but experts predict an autumn drop

May 01, 2008 04:30 AM
Tony Wong
Business Reporter

Oil-rich Alberta may be the envy of Ontario – especially as economic conditions soften in Central Canada.

But there's one thing that hasn't happened here, at least so far: despite strong economic growth in the western provinces house prices have taken a dramatic fall in some Alberta neighbourhoods.

The drop raises the question of whether that could happen in Ontario, where the economy is weaker.

In south Edmonton, a 1,263 square foot bungalow that would have gone for $390,000 last year now sells for $337,000 or a 14 per cent drop, according to a spring, national house-price survey released yesterday by Century 21 Canada.

In Calgary, a two-storey, 1,850 square foot home that might have gone for $480,000 last year now sells for $420,000, or a 13 per cent decrease.

So far that hasn't happened in Ontario, where a survey of 69 markets shows price increases in almost all areas, except four neighbourhoods.

One reason, of course, is that prices have gone up much faster in Western Canada, Toronto Dominion Bank deputy chief economist Craig Alexander said in an interview.

"Alberta has had such explosive price growth, it's perhaps not surprising to see something of a pullback."

Still, a report by the bank yesterday says Ontario is quickly becoming a "have-not" province as a high dollar and a U.S. economic slowdown are hurting the province's export industries. Job losses mean fewer people will be able to afford homes.

"There's no question the economic conditions are deteriorating in the province," Alexander said.

According to the Century 21 survey, the cities that experienced the slowest growth in the province are those with a manufacturing base such as Windsor, where a 1,400-square foot split level home in the neighbourhood of Tecumseh is down by 4 per cent.

In Oshawa, bungalows and town-homes are up, but by only 1 per cent, or less than the rate of inflation. The impact of recently announced layoffs by General Motors of Canada Ltd. has still to be felt, with up to 1,000 jobs slashed by this September.

In Toronto, home-price increases are still strong, ranging from a 3 per cent rise in condominium prices in Thornhill to 20 per cent in a North York project.

In areas such as Toronto, which has seen "unsustainable, fast-paced price growth that has eroded affordability," Alexander expects the market will cool this year, especially as the economy weakens.

One offsetting factor is that interest rates have been coming down.

"The debate so far has been not how high interest rates are going, but how far are they going down?" Alexander said.

"So that will have a mitigating impact."

Some, such as BMO Nesbitt Burns' deputy chief economist Doug Porter, have already declared the Canadian housing boom over after a huge decline in sales of 13 per cent in the first quarter nationally. Toronto, representing a quarter of all national sales, was the main reason.

But Alexander expects a spring pick-up this year, before the market starts to cool in the fall.

In the Toronto area, average prices continue to appreciate overall, up 7 per cent compared to the same time last year, to $399,117.

Analysts say prices continue to increase because sales remain a very high historically, and are coming off record peaks. But the U.S. economy continues in crisis mode – sales of single-family homes are down by 37 per cent for the year.

With 80 per cent of Ontario's exports going south, analysts say Toronto will not be immune.

eagle2008 · 发表于 2008-5-1 16:20

maybe

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加拿大经济开始走向衰退

Alberta home prices sliding