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Bloom is off the boom in Alberta's formerly red hot economy7 U& J* @5 C- i1 J/ r
Pockets of trouble starting to appear all over once you look past the oilsands3 E9 y" z3 J* u- x" q$ e
Gary Lamphier, The Edmonton Journal
# f( c! s# }4 hPublished: 1:35 am3 {4 C) N/ w& \! J7 ?. o
EDMONTON - As Albertans prepare to bid adieu to 2007, it's clear that the province's once-torrid economy is already in slowdown mode, with the cyclical peak of 2006 fading fast in the rear-view mirror.
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There's no denying it: Alberta's most recent economic boom is history. Although the economy shows no signs of falling off a cliff in 2008, the once-isolated pockets of economic pain have become too numerous to ignore.( h: R, W; D$ |% y0 o
Housing markets in Calgary and Edmonton have softened and the once-mighty stampede of migrants from other provinces has slowed. In fact, more Albertans are now moving to Saskatchewan or British Columbia than the reverse.
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# x* k$ R& j, `% tThe natural gas sector is struggling in the face of low prices and a strong loonie. Many drilling firms are in deep trouble. Roughly half of Western Canada's rig fleet sits idle and thousands of workers have been laid off. Alberta's forest products industry is also awash in bad news. With the U.S. housing market in the ditch, the mountain pine beetle chewing its way eastward and rising shipping costs hurting pulp producers, there's little relief in sight.
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Alberta's manufacturing sector also has been sideswiped by the high loonie, as has the province's tourism sector. Beef exports, a mainstay of Alberta's agricultural sector, are hurting also.
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In fact, if not for the red-hot pace of development in the oilsands, one has to wonder what kind of shape Alberta's economy would be in.
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On the bright side, unemployment remains low, well-paying jobs remain plentiful, oil prices are high and are likely to remain high in 2008, and the inventory of unsold homes is starting to moderate.
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Still, the headline numbers can be misleading. Often, if one takes the time to scratch below the surface, the top-line figures mask even more troubling signs of looming economic weakness.
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) f, s; M ^5 pConsider Alberta's migration numbers. As almost everyone knows, Alberta's population continues to grow at the fastest rate of any province in Canada.7 o- i$ D' J3 @" I# K2 p: |
, a$ F% Z9 U) ZAccording to Alberta Finance, the province's population grew by nearly 3.1 per cent during the year ended July 1. By comparison, the population of B.C. -- Canada's second-fastest growing province -- grew by just 1.4 per cent, and Saskatchewan's grew by less than one per cent.
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2 z- N# q" j Q3 W& D" l, D- CBut here's what the top-line figures don't show. The number of temporary workers who are moving to Alberta is skyrocketing. And few temporary workers are likely to buy new homes, condos, cars or appliances. Many live in work camps or in overcrowded rental units.
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During the first two quarters of 2007, temp workers accounted for almost 9,000 of the nearly 32,000 net newcomers who moved to Alberta. That was up more than 150 per cent from the prior-year period./ A% @1 [( n5 E% M' m
# L. {2 b U& b$ Y$ A6 ~. |Overall, temp workers comprised 28 per cent of all new net workers who relocated to Alberta in the first half of 2007. For all of 2006, the total was just 8.5 per cent.
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/ L7 O; M3 O2 e4 X" fThe trend is clear. Alberta's economy, long based on oil and gas extraction, now depends on extracting workers as well.
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That may be the quickest way to staff an oilsands project in a province with chronic labour shortages. But it's no way to build a strong, diversified economy where there's healthy, sustainable demand for housing and a multitude of consumer products. The gains are short-term only.
- F9 j8 z! K- t3 lNow let's take a look at Alberta's retail sector. At first blush, it looks rather robust.3 ^- ]% X, w) ?0 M$ v- I- b
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Year-over-year sales are still running in the seven-per-cent range, notes Todd Hirsch, senior economist at ATB Financial.
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Although that's well above the national rate, it's some 10 percentage points below the sky-high growth rates of a year ago, when ex-premier Ralph Klein issued his infamous $400 "Ralph Bucks" cheques to provincial residents.7 H; _2 T4 W+ P( g) {( N0 I9 R
But even the current seven-per-cent growth rate is a tad misleading. First of all, it doesn't take into account Alberta's inflation rate, which is currently north of five per cent. Nor does it factor in population growth. Excluding temp workers, that's running at about two per cent.
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" N1 J6 T$ m! }In other words, Alberta's retail sales are now basically flat, on a per-capita, inflation-adjusted basis. "In some cases it might even be negative. And now we have the high dollar, which is inducing a lot of cross-border shopping too," says Hirsch. H% [8 H8 n6 ] c2 @8 P, h+ h
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Alberta's auto dealers, appliance stores and high-end clothing outlets are likely feeling the most pain, he figures.
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( U& \7 R0 p4 a"Judging by what we're seeing, particularly among the auto dealers, they're really trying to offer whatever discounts they can, or they're lowering their financing costs or whatever," he adds." P y% ^+ k( |: [2 \1 F2 N
! q. o8 t0 c6 P- G( ^" P0 T- Q& l"So I would think it's the higher ticket items that are getting hit the most, the types of things you'd buy maybe once every five years. I don't think it's the Wal-Marts of the world that are getting hit."1 X( t( G2 B2 r% A
' f3 A* g6 T cTo paraphrase that Alberta bumper sticker from the '70s, I hope you had the good sense during the latest oil boom not to piss it all away.) K/ ^; l7 [1 o c, T0 J
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glamphier@thejournal.canwest.com |
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发表于 2007-12-11 09:06
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发表于 2007-12-11 19:14
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