Upgraders are good to go: AEUB

Magrath · 发表于 2007-8-8 08:38

Upgraders are good to go: AEUB
North West complex to rise in three stages

Gordon Jaremko
The Edmonton Journal

Wednesday, August 08, 2007

EDMONTON - Up to 2,000 construction workers are to start next year on building the next addition to upgrader alley east of Edmonton after the project won regulatory approval Tuesday.

Costs are "up substantially" from a $2.9-billion forecast last spring, but there are no plans to back off the development, North West Upgrader president Robert Pearce said in an interview.

"We still think it's something very much needed and required," Pearce said.

The plant, about 50 kilometres northeast of downtown Edmonton, will convert Alberta's molasses-like, low-priced oilsands bitumen into premium crude ready for refining into fuels and lubricants.

Engineering work will continue over the next few months while the project's economics are refined and final permits are sought from the province, Pearce said.

Privately owned North West's plan calls for a 150,000-barrels-daily upgrader to be built in three equal parts by 2015.

The firm's overtaken $2.9-billion cost estimate was for only the first 50,000-barrels stage, but the regulatory approval includes the entire project.

As an independent "merchant upgrader," North West's operation will process bitumen from an array of northern projects forecast to triple oilsands output to three million barrels per day or more within 10 years.

The Alberta Energy and Utilities Board rejected a City of Edmonton request for approval conditions to make North West help prod independent-minded local governments into collaborating with the city on devising a regional plan for coping with a forecast $40-billion in upgrader alley industrial growth.

"The board does not believe it has the mandate to direct that a regional management plan be developed. It believes this responsibility rests with the appropriate government bodies," the ruling said.

The AEUB urged the city, neighbouring municipal authorities and the industry to devise information and communications networks but did not suggest how to build such a system.

North West's project is one of up to a dozen bitumen upgraders planned for the Edmonton area.

Shell Canada, sponsor of a four-stage project forecast to cost up to $27 billion by the time it produces 400,000 barrels daily in 2020, predicts the upgrader alley development wave will use a small army of construction workers averaging 8,000 from mid-2008 through 2013 and peaking at 13,300 in 2011.

gjaremko@thejournal.canwest.com
© The Edmonton Journal 2007

老杨 · 发表于 2007-8-8 09:01

谁能给翻译一下？

精品中年老男人 · 发表于 2007-8-8 09:16

谁能给翻译一下？?

Magrath · 发表于 2007-8-9 06:45

All signs point to oil prices going up

Deborah Yedlin
Calgary Herald

Thursday, August 09, 2007

It's all so predictable. Oil prices run up and people start talking about prices reaching $100 US per barrel; oil prices retreat, as they did after hitting a high of $78.77 last week, and all of a sudden the sky is falling.

It's tough to know what to believe.

Let's start with the view from 10,000 metres. The cheap, light oil has been found, decline rates on both new and existing pools mean the world has to find at least the equivalent of what Canada produces every day -- about 3.2 million barrels -- in order to stay in one place. That works out to more than a billion barrels a year. In other words, forget about growing supply in the face of increasing demand; as China and India industrialize, their consumption will only keep rising.

And this means only one thing in the context of a scarce commodity: the price will continue to go up.

So why is it that, even when the crude oil inventory numbers drop more than what is expected -- like they have in each of the past two weeks -- does the price shoot up, only to give it all back in short order?

Some people have suggested the drop has been due to hedge funds taking money off the table, while others have pointed to concerns over the U.S. economy and the potential for a slowdown.

The hedge funds may well have been selling into the high prices, but the notion of oil prices falling because the U.S. economy may slow down makes no sense.

Even if this does happen -- though President George W. Bush saw fit to weigh in with his positive view of his country's economy Wednesday -- the combination of growth in other markets abroad, as well as the fact the U.S. dollar is continuing to drift downwards, making crude oil cheaper around the world, means consumption isn't about to drop precipitously.

In fact, world oil consumption is expected to average 87.4 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter, two million barrels higher than this time last year. Add the fact that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said Tuesday it sees no reason to increase production and all signs point to oil prices staying at current levels, or going higher.

With this as a backdrop, it's more than a tad surprising oil prices fell Thursday, after the U.S. Department of Energy released the weekly inventory numbers showing a drop in crude stocks of more than double what had been forecast. Instead of the two million barrel draw, the number was 4.14 million barrels; oil prices went up, and then proceeded to finish down 27 cents on the day, closing at $72.42 US.

While some might say the sell-off is necessary because investors were looking for reasons to buy crude, another explanation is simply that the end of the summer driving season is near and there needs to be a consolidation of positions by market players in order to stabilize prices. As positions are liquidated, prices drop and according to Martin King of FirstEnergy Capital Corp., this needs to happen.

That's because crude prices beyond $70 a barrel cause a lot of pain for refiners; their margins get squeezed. Technical types call this the crack spread -- the difference between the current month's price for gasoline and the future's curve for crude oil. These days it's running below $10 and King says it needs to be in the high teens for the refineries to make money. What this means is that one of two things must happen: oil prices drop or gasoline prices rise. From this perspective, it's more than a bit interesting that refinery utilization rates were lower than many expected, leading one to conclude that indeed the high price of crude was having an impact on the refineries.

Still, as the hedge funds continue to distort the market, it's important to stay focused on the fundamentals.

Douglas Porter, managing director and deputy chief economist for BMO Nesbitt Burns, points to growing domestic demand in both China and India, which suggests rising consumption levels are the result of the growing middle class. What this implies, he says, is that the U.S. consumer no longer bears the responsibility for economic growth in the rest of the world. Porter also points to the fact that even with high oil prices, economic growth has not slowed in the U.S., nor has inflation risen exponentially.

Finally, add the fact that there is no spare capacity to be had and even if OPEC were to put more barrels on the market, expectations are that prices in the fourth quarter are going to be amongst the strongest seen in several years.

What all this suggests is that investors have to ditch the short-term mentality when it comes to oil prices: this is a long-term game. From this perspective, there is little to suggest oil prices are going to keep falling.

dyedlin@theherald.canwest.com
© The Calgary Herald 2007

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