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$ j. i- ]- y: M& [1 o5 o Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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2 A+ m8 _' E3 x" q8 K1 r In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007. f! U; n2 [, o5 l/ Q
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN: m% P0 i0 G) G
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 2 n+ K0 U% }+ t) S) Z
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. ' {- X3 f5 T' g
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' 5 ~) t+ Q: L! M! `" Z- U& k% \
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6 c2 G( _5 H3 A- C1 f9 \, v6 d0 k"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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1 @% o& I1 z( Q# CShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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' s0 m& J5 l" e$ ["There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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& ]3 U- t; I) ]9 ^6 q% r: PCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. ; O7 H! P& g' j! w
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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. d( t! Q# n; z$ J! D# Z"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." " @& a' K. W2 ]$ _$ F. d
. I/ a' Q* w- jExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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& S3 c# y6 E/ Q4 r5 ^* qOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. $ Y( X( n: V% V5 V! C, ]
6 A5 h9 |4 F; S1 T; e Y! d- G"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. 6 K" V- F/ I0 {! J
0 i2 }, w2 K0 X W6 {# A8 tSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. ; S' Z, a: c( M; Y( W
0 L7 j& b2 I! U+ I3 s9 JYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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4 e( k! c; O, S7 [$ P( @, j"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. - J. Y7 X+ H" A6 b8 l" U' z
; G; `8 ^# d* T) w; ]Let the good times roll. 7 S. U. ~/ f. y$ g6 \
0 V6 O2 Z/ k/ o3 r, o3 i1 SPrevious story: Bottom Line% }+ F) n( t7 J
Next story: Building permits hit record
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