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发表于 2012-6-22 06:35
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DELTA 发表于 2012-6-21 19:46  ! ~' Q8 U$ m! O6 y8 W) G4 S$ h6 [
想听听贷款专家郭森的建议.
; Q0 r9 o6 J/ d( o( X$ g我先不谈自己的意见或建议， 转贴一封我们TMG 的PRESIDENT & CFO 之邮件，希望您有耐心读完！4 Z3 g7 A# J! x$ J* y6 M9 D
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I have to say, after the last three years of market volatility, the last three rounds of mortgage changes and the introduction of OSFI as the overseer of CMHC there is nothing that can surprise me . that was until last night. The fourth round of mortgage changes introduced by Minster of Finance Jim Flaherty did just that - took me by surprise.
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First a brief recap of the changes:8 z. v/ Z) h: l6 Y' y* s
1. All changes are in respect to insured mortgage loans ' H. q1 F& I* b8 L( I
2. Reduction in the maximum amortization from 30 years to 25 years
( T" s. U9 a1 h n5 s& t k3. Reduction in the maximum amount Canadians can borrow to refinance their current homes from 85% to 80% loan-to-value
4 m$ d* W/ U: J/ L- J4. Mortgage customers are going to be qualified on maximum gross debt service ratios of 39% and total debt service ratios of 44%/ M/ r" l" b* X1 Z* o3 x0 U
5. Maximum property values to qualify for mortgage insurance must be less than $1 million.
3 |5 J4 d* E/ G; r! v: i5 e0 | z6 i6. These changes are going to come into effect on July 9th (as opposed to previous announcements that any changes would come with 60 days notice): ~9 E; y& ^0 V, h8 T' ]* m0 S
7. These changes are in addition to the changes previously announced by OFSI about limiting the maximum loan-to-value on HELOCs to 65%% q0 \& r& m& w) ?
What are the implications of these changes?$ l0 P& G% J1 o+ }1 ~
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According to published reports of leading economists these changes are going to help facilitate a "soft landing". Many are commenting that they are prudent given the continued run up of the debt-to-income ratios and extended period of ultra-low interest rates./ R9 l5 W5 L0 I B
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My concern is that these changes have targeted first time homebuyers to a much greater extent which could have a more significant impact on the housing market in Canada. This statement is not meant to alarm you. I believe our housing market, our financial system, our national economic health are all very strong. The statement is meant to provide perspective on the changes./ ^0 |. L1 E6 M8 s3 }! Y0 z
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Moving amortizations from 30 years to 25 years is NOT the same as when they were reduced from 35 to 30 years. For example:+ {- z) V/ D4 o$ B$ S2 o
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A $250,000 loan amount for 5 years with fixed interest rate of 3.29% the monthly P&I payments are as follows:* ]2 u! v) O3 L6 ^% d
" t3 {: i% n5 w0 u: p' w$ B25 year amortization = $1,220.63
! x% s' P6 h% C: y4 H% p7 E0 J: F30 year amortization = $1,090.44 (The monthly cash flow difference between 25 and 30 years is $130.19)3 |! o }( U9 Y K. p
35 year amortization = $999.86 (The monthly cash flow difference between 30 and 35 years is $90.58)
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7 `3 ?! g+ r7 c7 M, Z6 {In this example the delta between the two is nearly 30% - a significant difference. In an economic report released this morning from CIBC it was estimated that "the direct impact of this move alone might cut the value of mortgage originations by close to 2%." In our channel we are even more sensitive to this because a high percentage of our business comes from first time homebuyers.
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In January of this year, CIBC published a report showing that debt-to-income ratios were skewed towards habitual borrowers. It went on to say "A rising share of the highly indebted are over 45 years old, an age where accumulating net assets ahead of retirement should be paramount. Canadians nearing retirement, who should be in their prime savings years, are, instead, getting themselves deeper into debt." This is clearly not the same group most affected by today's change in policy.
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Reducing maximum amortizations by another 5% will make the cost of borrowing more expensive for mortgage consumers on the margin. For those who, in the past, used this opportunity in a prudent manner to consolidate higher interest credit then used the cash flow savings to more aggressively retire debt, those options have just been reduced.
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For those borrowers who do need to refinance and who are now unable to will seek out more expensive private, unsecured lending products and credit cards to do so. When you consider such a high percentage of mortgage refinance dollars were spent on home improvement and consumer spending, I am concerned about the impact of this change on the economy as well.6 l% p" J7 h5 b/ y0 A% c. l8 y; R
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Changes to the gross debt requirements will, in the future, create more questions than answers. The biggest question for us is to understand how the calculations will vary from lender to lender. For example, will a lender use 3% for the calculation on a Line of Credit or interest only payments? Now is the time to ensure you have clarification from your lender partners and understand their guidelines.
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Setting a $1 million mortgage insurance limit on property values is clearly going to target the larger urban areas such as Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto. If the concern was for the condo market, these strokes are much broader in context. Funding appears to be limited to balance sheet lenders for these conventional loans going forward.
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' z% m( y4 _! s6 h; |* o5 |, DThe short notice period -- changes take effect on July 9, 2012 - is clearly Flaherty wanting immediate action to not allow a bubble of mortgage demand to build up over an extended period of time.# Q, a1 U# p4 K5 h& r
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Why did these changes come into place?, p0 S8 V# y6 {. \6 o
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Clearly the extended ultra-low interest rate environment we have been experiencing lately has spurred borrowing and had a positive impact on home prices across Canada. The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney had been hinting at his desire in recent months to raise rates. This change gives Carney room to NOT raise interest rates. In fact, if the global economy does worsen, he may, in fact, have the ability to lower rates. A TD Economics report released today asserted that the tighter restrictions can target the risk more directly and have roughly the equivalent impact to a 1% increase in interest rates.2 w6 O" H/ k+ s( I: O
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The global economy is still in bad shape. While we have all been reading the headlines about Spain, Greece, the elections in France, etc., our world financial leaders must believe we are in for prolonged economic recession. As such, there is no time soon when interest rates are likely to rise. The Government decided to target the mortgage debt as a means to deal with the Bank of Canada's inability to raise interest rates.
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I question the timing though and ask "why now?" From a political sense, it has been reported recently that there has been a softening in the housing market, at least in a number of cities. If these changes prove to be the tipping point the Government can go back and say "it wasn't our changes that led to this downturn, it was already happening".
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I have to say though I am disappointed. It was just two short months ago on April 10, 2012 that Flaherty was quoted as saying "I have no present plans to intervene in the housing market in Canada. There has been some moderation in the market of late. I would prefer the market itself to correct to the extent a correction is necessary."+ B8 P) m) t* h
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This reminds me when former US President George Bush said "Read my lips, no new taxes."
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What do we do now?
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% d$ e l. U6 }: I I% {First and foremost, I believe more strongly at this moment than ever, that Canadians should and MUST consult with a mortgage broker. Access to multiple lenders, speaking with an expert and navigating these changes is not only in their best interest but in our lending partners best interests as well. After all, there is no channel more knowledgeable and informed than the broker channel in Canada.
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+ j* n: \3 r HSecondly, be available. These changes are happening fast. There is no 60-day notice period. If you have been in recent contact with purchasers or refinance clients in the recent past engage them today. Let them know these changes are coming down the pipe and how and when they will be impacted.
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Believe in our markets and our systems. Canada is the best country to live in. We are in many respects the envy of the world. We will continue to thrive. We have already successful dealt with three rounds of mortgage changes in the last three to four years and we will deal with this round as well.
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9 m) L" O8 D2 M/ B1 c" J. R' m. b# qBe engaged in CAAMP and your provincial associations. They have ongoing government relations initiatives in place. They have the ear of our Government and can act much more effectively as a group than us as a dispersed group of individuals.$ F5 h- q3 |' ]) L5 @- Q2 R' _/ Y
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Your TMG leadership is engaged in this discussion. We have developed deep and meaningful relationships with lenders. They want to deal with TMG and our brokers. They view us as a national "boutique" firm known for our high quality and efficient deals. This will position us very well in the times ahead.
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