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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
7 O! h5 B4 K2 \& F TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
* Y3 E. g0 X) ~% _3 ^" E0 Omiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
0 s9 R( t, H7 Ngains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,: \% f: U; c( e& I$ n3 a$ @
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.2 r0 E, B! T; O O: |' x
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
+ ]7 C; v8 a. P& B5 o1 X2 isaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is& |3 _- a s j( e/ c
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
. Z* }$ Q" o: u& lmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
G1 f* H* }* j8 {) L RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is( Z, O$ H7 Y2 \3 E/ S! v5 p8 E1 K
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
% W. ~, ]# A8 O$ `- }1 |+ a% y. iwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
7 l7 ^+ j4 }# g. Y5 \" P, v) L0 u3 ]sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
" x) x2 c* v R) C0 @: I1 y The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the0 p& f! Q' K8 M _
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
$ Q" X' v, L- qhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.$ F/ X% ]- B5 z4 J6 b
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
4 ^8 ?: l! h6 A& Q$ I5 Z% rstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and' ~' s7 c6 T: U: Q* K# t
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.& L2 Y: L" o& g/ c8 b! @
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets: ?7 ^# a( e# n& c, q
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in* S$ S; H* O" |
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
, Z6 [$ b# ~% ?' I( ^- Q( }' Fhistorically depressed levels.; _5 I6 _# J: M
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
j; Z) E2 n6 O9 b7 ~' m1 X" k, r1 Uof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
; k6 Y1 m) H3 P) o& V Kprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the& G, \$ v) x. n2 c# `) s
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This% P/ I0 I/ z* w
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
. B/ S; ~. t, q% v: T& E" amonths ahead," added Hogue.' V3 l8 i: ^5 \
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest5 r" y4 k# s9 Q; M
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary& L' c' [. v( K% s! F/ n
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.) o( m9 Q) |- \
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for5 N1 s) e; |& w! D- s
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
/ J, w! X& z) l8 _3 q# F1 `, `9 Acities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only- ~: Y, _# n; A! b% K3 D/ k- [! f
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
$ S3 i5 h7 K4 f6 K2 O1 ?# Z The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is- v+ ^$ J1 `# B
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
6 {6 B$ O6 X: \2 ebenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
7 q( s! X$ ^: rincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
& A* n; p' d; `condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.$ V7 G, t: x2 }# Z, g
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
5 f4 z, S3 ^( X/ y% q; Hcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 501 h! V, v7 D+ D$ c3 u# T: W
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.6 c; [. f: L5 I5 e$ } v9 [
- [, P" V7 m. \" M+ V5 C
<<1 B4 b3 P% |, o& `7 ^( @" @% ^+ X
Highlights from across Canada:/ `! \- p- h0 i
3 s2 r: P1 @3 O: O* m+ J - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
* D" [$ G: A9 |1 B" `3 G8 V5 K8 z- v intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
2 a$ |3 k* n, i5 W% s home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
" t2 d$ S$ ?7 j) D2 ?$ `: h only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
" u2 i5 ?- Q: C0 w since about the middle of 2007.9 Y7 ]* ^. {; G* |5 \: ? R4 V5 j; k; x( {
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the1 S& ?4 s# I; \5 o( w* g8 Y
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to/ f4 V+ R1 A+ P" c
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
! P7 M: ~1 ]5 q/ x% L largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely" w2 f5 m4 z# @+ l" T7 ]
poor affordability levels.+ k: T T/ Q+ l$ d5 S
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the) h& D7 M( E4 y* t1 j" Z) c4 o
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
. Y. N2 r( w5 Z, @' i9 x prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.% ^: L) j; d: V$ G, z$ a5 o
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to( `) q9 H" F. g6 b3 z, ?0 G E
minimize any downside risks.9 r( {) Y$ y- [% [0 q
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market& _* z" P; p* g8 r1 j
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
1 Q/ ^' }1 m! y N8 j$ _ S3 f unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early9 ^8 E1 {: [! L# \2 ~' {
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
5 J# V ^' V* u; {1 i being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.* I- o8 }* \1 g) H z, u
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
8 w0 Z7 \0 g5 i4 t Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus) T! M4 ^) Z) W
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
, ~4 \& Y, z- H# ^" n reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
: E1 {& Q) I0 ?& o% I' I# O% y7 ? ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only/ M4 i' C" c3 d! z9 M3 {
modestly in recent years.
3 K9 J! }4 e& Z+ l3 t - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the: W+ O, J3 ?: R/ S2 A/ g) T
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot e1 \, v1 A& X) X, Y
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
* g8 ]% {# k! f" b% e price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability. \8 G0 v, T0 S& ? Y9 u9 l; g W* t
following two years of deterioration.* c# D) T: u6 O0 E2 s& k2 I
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