British Columbia, Saskatchewan drawing people away from Alberta

水管工 · 发表于 2008-4-1 09:10

Net decline only 880 people, but it marks big swing from final quarter of 2006
Gary Lamphier, The Edmonton Journal
Published: 1:32 am
EDMONTON - You hear that trickling sound?

No, it's not a leaky pipe, and you didn't leave your kitchen faucet running. It's the sound of people trickling out of Alberta, mainly for neighbouring Saskatchewan and British Columbia.

The final three months of 2007 marked the second straight quarter in which Alberta saw a net drop in interprovincial migration, and the first time this province sustained back-to-back quarterly losses since 1994.

Although Wild Rose Country's net decline was tiny, at just 880 people, it marked a big swing from the final quarter of 2006, when Alberta saw 11,810 more newcomers flock here than left for other provinces.

During the third quarter of 2007, Alberta's net population loss to the rest of Canada topped 3,300 as residents cashed out of the province's once-sizzling housing market and moved to lower-cost cities such as Saskatoon.

For 2007 as a whole, B.C. led all provinces, attracting nearly 13,400 net new interprovincial migrants. Thanks to a strong first-half showing, Alberta still managed to grab second spot, at 10,630. Saskatchewan was third, at 10,170.

Last year marked the end of a decade of dominance by Alberta, during which it consistently ranked atop the provincial pack.

It also marked a huge decline from 2006, when Alberta drew 58,000 net newcomers from other provinces, 82 per cent more than last year. In 2005, the net increase was nearly 45,000.

The data, compiled by Alberta Finance, is based on population and migration estimates released last week by Statistics Canada.

The news isn't all bad for Alberta, mind you. With an estimated total population of almost 3.5 million people as of Jan. 1, Alberta added almost 68,000 new residents or nearly two per cent to its total in 2007.

While that was the lowest tally in three years, it was almost double the national average of one per cent, and it topped every other province. Saskatchewan and B.C. ranked second and third, respectively.

Alberta's gains mainly reflect continued growth in international immigration, especially among temporary foreign workers. The latter category accounted for almost 16,200 net newcomers last year, up from less than 7,000 in 2006, and just 3,200 in 2005.

Since temporary workers don't buy houses, however, that -- along with the big downturn in interprovincial migration -- are two key reasons why Alberta's housing market has flattened since last June. So what's ahead? In all likelihood, more weakness for the rest of 2008 and into the first half of 2009, says Richard Goatcher, senior market analyst with Canada Mortgage & Housing Corp. in Edmonton.

"We'll see a continuation of the adjustment that occurred last year, and it will linger into next year for the multi-family (condo-apartment) market," he says.

Although the outlook is somewhat brighter for the single-detached housing market, where builders began cutting back on new housing starts a few months ago and inventories are coming back into line, Goatcher doesn't see a sustained rebound taking hold until the fall.

Richard Corriveau, CMHC's Calgary-based economist for the Prairie region, tells a similar tale. He expects Saskatchewan to continue to lead all provinces in average house price gains in 2008, as more Albertans head east in search of cheaper housing.

At the same time, B.C.'s strong economy will continue to lure Albertans to the West Coast, at least until the major

infrastructure projects associated

with the 2010 Winter Olympics are completed.

"Five years ago, the unemployment rate in B.C. was pushing 10 per cent, so it gave people a strong incentive to relocate to Alberta. But over the last five years, B.C.'s unemployment rate has been cut in half. So people are capitalizing on that by moving back to B.C.," he says.

Corriveau expects average house prices in Saskatchewan to jump another 26.4 per cent this year, to $220,000. Last year, when Saskatchewan recorded its first annual gains in net interprovincial migration in 22 years, average house prices soared by roughly 50 per cent.

Average house prices in Alberta, which hit their cyclical peak last summer, are expected to edge up by 3.9 per cent this year, to $369,000.

But Corriveau figures the big gains in Saskatchewan will come to an end this year. For 2009, he expects average prices to rise by just eight per cent, to $238,000, with average prices in Alberta up five per cent, to $389,000.

"For Alberta, there's no need to pull the panic alarm just yet. While 2006 was an anomaly for net migration to Alberta, 2007 may prove to be an anomaly for the next five years, as a relatively weak year," he says.

"I think the interprovincial migration stats will improve going forward, given that the oilsands developments have yet to peak, and (the new upgraders) will certainly help the Edmonton area as well."

glamphier@thejournal.canwest.com

依勒特 · 发表于 2008-4-1 09:23

老九不能走！你走了谁买我的房子啊？我可是预测人口激增才囤积房子的。

账号		自动登录	找回密码
密码			注册