Land for homes doubles in value

水管工

Huge demand will keep lot prices sizzling
Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald
Published: Tuesday, March 25, 2008
$ u2 Z) \" q) N* R+ y) lThe total dollar volume for residential land transactions in Calgary ballooned to $712 million in 2007, more than doubling what it was two years ago.
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: h& A( r$ x& P/ w2 xData compiled by RealNet Canada Inc. shows residential land sales in Calgary have been on a steep rise since 2001 when they totalled $136 million, but they began to soar in 2005 when they reached $350 million and then went to $572 million in 2006.

1 h0 }6 _' j1 j; A! s5 d# Y"When we've talked in the past about anticipated decrease in housing with costs, it's not on the horizon because the land that developers are buying which they're going to pass through to builders is a lot more," said Deep Shergill, president of the Canadian Home Builders' Association for the Calgary region.
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# I) D( N8 T6 o3 O# w( OThe land has consistently gone up in price around Calgary . . . Our lot prices as builders are going up. So our lot prices are reflecting what's happening to land prices."
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Shergill said many of the land deals were likely made and closed before things levelled off in the housing market in the Calgary region. "I do know that developers that have purchased land even this year are still paying more than they paid the year before," he said.
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"The basic thing is there is a shortage of land either perceived or otherwise. The reason I say perceived or otherwise is that it really depends on which way the city is going to grow. Where the development permits may be available . . . If you're buying land in an existing area where an area structure plan has already been done, then you're basically just buying a small piece to develop. That is available, but that's at a higher price obviously because there's not very much land that you can bring on fairly quickly."

7 I: w" M. S! t5 P( U6 n) t0 B6 `And because of that, Shergill said, it's not likely to see lot prices going down any time soon. He said there remains a huge demand for single-family homes in the market.

/ G# t* F+ Q4 q" i5 f"A lot of people are waiting to see if prices are going to stabilize or if they are going to come down. There's always the outside chance, but the reality is that I don't think the prices have really moved in the past few months," said Shergill. "The demand is there, but supply is very limited."

The years 2006 and 2007 in particular experienced high levels of new residential construction throughout the city, said Lai Sing Louie, senior market analyst in Calgary for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.
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9 H3 c2 U6 ~" q  J# W4 Z"Prices escalated quite dramatically for land," he said. "At one period in 2006, the land component of (Statistics Canada's) New Housing Price Index indicated that people were paying 50 per cent more for land than they were a year previous and that went on for a period of time."

In the most recent data by Statistics Canada, the federal agency said new house prices in the Calgary Census Metropolitan Area grew by 5.6 per cent between January 2007 and January 2008. In 2006, the rate of new home price growth in the Calgary region peaked with a stunning 60.6 per cent year-over-year hike in August.

$ F; d+ t  q' y! S! \7 t# LThe Calgary CMA includes the city, Airdrie, the Municipal District of Rocky View, Chestermere, Cochrane, Irricana, Beiseker and Crossfield.
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Construction of single-detached homes in the Calgary CMA was strong in both 2006 and 2007. The CMHC said housing starts in that single-detached category were 10,482 units in 2006, an extraordinary year, setting the benchmark for activity. Starts dropped by 25.8 per cent in 2007 to 7,777 units and are forecast to have a further 17.7 per cent decline this year to 6,400 units.
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"(The year) 2006 was a real boom year for Calgary. The interesting thing is to see this tremendous rise continue into 2007," said Bruce Irvine, vice-president for business development and retention at Calgary Economic Development, referring to the residential land transactions. "We think that's got a lot to do with factors in cities and other markets globally. Right now Calgary is still the place. There's a storm coming. Calgary is not going to be immune to that, but it's certainly one of the best places to weather it."

In the short term, he said, investors are looking for transactions that make sense for them and they're looking also for long-term land holding.
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3 ?# t$ }$ I8 ]/ H; C, ]- A# XThe long-term story is that there continues to be faith in this market and a growing opportunity -- part of the story that's tremendous here -- is the massive growth at the fringe of the city in terms of value," added Irvine. "By these (RealNet) numbers, 30 per cent of the transactions are occurring around the outside edge of the city. That land comes into development later. It's
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[ 本帖最后由 水管工 于 2008-3-25 09:10 编辑 ]

水管工

房子越建越少, 但是土地开发越来越多. 这是不是有点问题? 文章说是由于Huge Demand, Short of supply, 觉得有点瞎扯, 可能更是跟土地开发的高利润有关. 请各位大侠分析分析.

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Land Development $350 m(2005) $572 m(2006) $712 m(2007)
6 n. U1 V  e0 n0 Y1 \5 @0 \# \House Starts 10482(2006) 7777(2007) 6400(2008)

[ 本帖最后由 水管工 于 2008-3-25 09:35 编辑 ]