Housing prices to free fall in 2008 - Merrill

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Housing prices to free fall in 2008 - Merrill
According to a Merrill Lynch report, home prices will drop 15 percent this year, and declines will continue in 2009.

% B/ V4 D/ g* Q# t2 SBy David Goldman, CNNMoney.com staff writer
  {1 }9 |& I) m( `; t9 B! QJanuary 23 2008: 5:24 PM EST
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4 O9 A7 H; v$ @. m% {3 INEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The worst housing financial crisis in decades is only going to get worse, a Merrill Lynch report said Wednesday.
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The investment bank forecasted a 15 percent drop in housing prices in 2008 and a further 10 percent drop in 2009, with even more depreciation likely in 2010.
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By contrast, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) expects housing prices to remain flat in 2008. NAR did cut its home price estimate for the current quarter, however, to a 5.3 percent year-over-year decline, which represents the steepest drop in that price measure on record. But NAR sees an uptick in home prices in the last two quarters of 2008.

"Merrill Lynch's figures are way too pessimistic, and they are unprecedented," Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors chief economist told CNNMoney.com. "There is so much variation in local housing markets, and we see stable price conditions for 2008."
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% A4 \1 |: ~( K- xThe current housing crisis and the depreciation in home prices have pummeled the economy, with businesses and consumers cutting back on spending, raising the specter of a recession. "Lower sales and higher inventory for sales are lowering the velocity of transactions," said Fritz Siebel, Director of US Property Derivatives for Tradition Financial Services. "That cannot be a sign of good health for the economy."
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But for those who think that the worst is over, Merrill Lynch said that housing prices still remain comparatively high. The brokerage believes that home prices are still far above historical norms when compared to other measures such as rent or GDP. "By our calculations, it will take about a 20 to 30 percent decline in home prices to correct this imbalance," said the report.
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Merrill Lynch believes that housing starts will most likely slide another 30 percent by the end of 2008 - a historic low.
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The report says that the inventory situation only continues to worsen, as homebuilders are now looking at more than a nine months' supply. "The current supply/demand environment does not favor a swift recovery in the housing market, in our view," according to the report.

Yun agrees that the reduction in housing starts will not bode well for the economy, especially in the homebuilding industry, but he believes that the reduction will soothe the housing market by slowing the glut in inventory. "The reduction in housing starts is not stabilizing the economy, but it will stabilize the market," said Yun. To top of page

elephant

你说的是美国,这里是爱民屯,怎么能让人民那么痛苦的事发生?

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原帖由 elephant 于 2008-1-24 12:19 发表
/ b) G4 q! c" h  j" c; i你说的是美国,这里是爱民屯,怎么能让人民那么痛苦的事发生?

不好意思，我刚才忘了艾伯塔是独立王国，省界上修了100米的围墙，跟美国没有贸易往来...

小福鸟

Calgary housing expected to become more affordable
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http://www.canada.com/calgaryher ... ac1c118&k=69536
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' R& m% G  V8 ]9 k0 j- T2 qCalgary's housing market is starting to cool from the unsustainable territory it hit in 2006 and 2007, and that means affordability levels should start to improve in the city this year, says a new housing report by RBC Economics.
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The RBC Affordability measure, released today, says Calgary's market is still in "elevated territory", but it is coming off sharply from its 2006-2007 peaks.
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  l5 E  D. k& u7 T' D+ B"After a sharp erosion in affordability in the first half of 2007, (the third quarter) showed only a modest deterioration in two-storey, bungalows, and townhomes, while condo affordability actually improved - a testament to a rapidly cooling market," said the RBC report.

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The affordability measure captures the proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a home. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home. For example, an affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50 per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.

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- a% E# W; a0 q* S$ ~For the third quarter of 2007, in Calgary, the measure rose to 46.1 per cent for a detached bungalow (44.8 per cent in Q2), 46.9 per cent for a standard two-storey home, (45.7 per cent in Q2), and 36.6 per cent for a standard townhouse (35 per cent in Q2). But the measure declined to 28.6 per cent for a standard condo (29.1 per cent in Q2).
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& Q1 `* i( L3 I"Many prospective homebuyers were priced out of the market last year as affordability conditions eroded, thereby pushing markets into unsustainable territory," said Derek Holt, assistant chief economist with the RBC.

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The report said "underlying fundamentals are signalling that housing markets are ripe for a significant slowdown this year" in Alberta.

  
"Migration flows sharply reversed in the third quarter, leading to the first net outflow of migrants in more than a decade," said the report. "A softer migration outlook will reinforce already-evident cooling in the construction sector. Housing starts plateaued in 2007 at 48,000 units and this year we anticipate an outright retrenchment with starts expected to drop by 10,000 units."

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It said demand for new and existing homes has already slowed sharply with markets expected to continue to decelerate this year. Price gains are expected to slow dramatically from 30 per cent in 2007 down to the eight per cent range this year in the province.

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! k) H5 @: o* P6 R" Yhttp://www.canada.com/calgaryher ... ac1c118&k=69536
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" Z" k9 M: [0 X% g[ 本帖最后由 小福鸟 于 2008-1-24 12:45 编辑 ]

精品中年老男人

我爱我家7878

“Price gains are expected to slow dramatically from 30 per cent in 2007 down to the eight per cent range this year in the province.”
4 d) R8 I( h' L# F& q从涨30%降到涨8%？ 还是要涨？ 英格力席不好， 是不是这个意思？

小福鸟

原帖由 我爱我家7878 于 2008-1-24 19:43 发表
“Price gains are expected to slow dramatically from 30 per cent in 2007 down to the eight per cent range this year in the province.”
从涨30%降到涨8%？ 还是要涨？ 英格力席不好， 是不是这个意思？:xie ...

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: w3 K1 _# X4 c3 uyes. I think so. 但说是全省平均涨8%
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[ 本帖最后由 小福鸟 于 2008-1-24 20:19 编辑 ]

我爱我家7878

谢谢。 不知爱城高于还是低于8%

小福鸟

原帖由 我爱我家7878 于 2008-1-24 20:26 发表
* F- U8 @( M2 N谢谢。 不知爱城高于还是低于8%

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据我所知爱城房价还在跌，或者说是调整，而现在的跌和经济面没太大关系，主要原因是市场上的房子太多了，供过于求。经济情况正常的话，爱城房市继续调整，经济不好的话，情况就。。。

years

听上去好像大家在赌大小啊