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$100 oil just around the corner, experts say3 T7 v: N1 m. L% {: k
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Mark Shenk
% M- b$ R- |8 a$ O, IBloomberg News
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Tuesday, July 24, 2007
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The $100-a-barrel oil that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said would prevail by 2009 may be only a few months away.* i5 r7 J) ]; z! {/ P
& u. h6 a+ U+ T; F {( yJeffrey Currie, a London-based commodity analyst at the world's biggest securities firm, says $95 US crude is likely this year unless OPEC unexpectedly increases production, and declining inventories are raising the chances for $100 oil.
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Jeff Rubin at CIBC World Markets predicts $100 a barrel as soon as next year.
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) `9 ?9 r$ W/ K" m% b9 h+ b9 u"We're only a headline of significance away from $100 oil," said John Kilduff, an analyst in the New York office of futures broker Man Financial Inc. "The unrelenting pressure of increased demand has left the market a coiled spring."7 @$ j3 S* @8 x, B
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New disruptions of Nigerian or Iraqi supplies, or any military strike against Iran, might trigger the rise, Kilduff said in a July 20 interview.
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" ^; C) R/ d7 P+ ^. {3 ~; tHigher prices will increase revenue for energy producers from Exxon Mobil Corp. to PetroChina Co., while eroding profit at airlines.- ]7 c# a9 f G4 O1 C; |- ^3 u9 S: F
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The U.S. and other oil-importing nations risk accelerating inflation, while higher energy costs threaten to restrain growth.
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$ X; V0 W2 m# {. IBenchmark crude oil futures ended last week at $75.57 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 51 per cent since mid-January and twice the level of early 2003.
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3 {7 D/ B$ J- E% Q$ cA record number of options have been sold that give the buyer the right to buy crude oil at $100. The contracts, covering 50 million barrels, only pay off should oil go above the target price. N' `: s5 B# T5 g i4 \; b$ X C
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Arjun Murti, a New York-based Goldman Sachs analyst who covers oil producers and refiners, roiled markets in March 2005 with a report saying prices could touch $105 a barrel during a "super spike" period because demand was stronger than anticipated. Price swings might also go as low as $50, Murti said at the time.
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Currie, Goldman's global head of commodities research in London, is predicting that oil prices will probably touch a record and stay at unprecedented levels for months or years.
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, [% g9 t/ _" k' p$ Z( KThe all-time high for Nymex crude futures is $78.40 a barrel on July 14, 2006.
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"Ultimately, the key to the outlook going forward is when will Saudi Arabia ramp up production," he said in an interview. "If you have a situation in which inventories globally get drawn to critically low levels, the volatility in this market is likely to explode, which significantly increases the probability of $100 oil.", e7 Q, y! G5 v0 q3 y! C" A
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Oil might slip all the way back to $73.50 if OPEC were to start producing more now, he said.
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2 `. I2 e$ o, c( A* M/ JThe Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is scheduled to meet next in September. B+ M# U q( _& n6 ]' o
5 a/ M- w6 |, q1 S% x' G; n: X/ mThe failure of near-record fuel prices to restrain global oil demand growth is what concerns Rubin, chief strategist at the brokerage unit of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in Toronto.
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"Prices have doubled, and demand is alive and well and accelerating," he said in a July 18 interview. "The argument that rising prices would choke demand and bring increased output is falling to the wayside."2 v; z) O$ `+ g( ?0 t& ]
; ?! e5 ^+ F1 o- n0 Z+ g! pA National Petroleum Council study led by former Exxon Mobil chairman Lee Raymond, released last week, predicted a growing gap between production and demand for oil and gas during the next two decades. As recently as 2005, Raymond said oil prices had probably peaked and dismissed the possibility that supply and demand could not be brought back into balance.
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PUMP PRICES NO PROBLEM
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& y) x3 K/ w" ]8 I1 mGasoline pump prices haven't dented sales in the U.S. Deliveries of gasoline were a record 9.23 million barrels a day in the first half of this year, according to a July 18 report from the American Petroleum Institute in Washington.! g0 a3 U! r$ |( W% d2 `
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"It appears that high prices are acceptable to the American consumer," said Robert Ebel, chairman of the energy program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "People want the house with a yard and white-picket fence so they are moving further and further out of the cities. They have to just get up earlier and drive further."- }0 _$ N7 r; ?5 W5 n3 ]
s( H' I8 C. ^& QOutside the U.S., demand increases are being led by India and China, where growing economies mean more cars and trucks and more factories that burn oil and gas. Consumption between now and the end of the year will increase by 3.6 million barrels a day because of seasonal shifts. The rise is equal to the daily production of Kuwait and Oman combined, and it comes after OPEC twice in the past year cut production to support prices.0 N, P- B' h3 a) W% j
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PRODUCTION COSTS RISING STEADILY1 A X! t' J6 H. e: m
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The cost of finding and pumping oil is rising steadily, convincing analysts such as Rubin and Deutsche Bank AG chief energy economist Adam Sieminski that higher prices will last. Shortages of deepwater drilling ships and rigs has pushed daily rents to records, and the skilled workers needed to run rigs, weld pipes, pilot vessels, fix refineries and build oilsands projects command ever-higher wages.
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Oil prices could triple in three months to more than $200 a barrel, given the right circumstances, according to Matthew Simmons, chairman of Simmons & Co., a Houston investment bank.
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5 f& a- R! q/ `"Oil is still cheap," Simmons said. "In the 20th century, with a few exceptions, oil was almost free. The only exceptions were during 1973, 1979 and when Iraq invaded Kuwait."% c5 r4 k3 {( T! m: l0 J
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Not everyone is convinced $100 crude will happen. "The risk parameters are somewhat different than a year ago, however the overall situation is similar," said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citigroup Inc. in New York, who correctly predicted a year ago that oil prices were at a peak.
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5 f2 T1 t( ^0 i& g"We've priced in a shortage that is not evident yet."
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" E5 `/ O8 g3 s( {0 `8 q8 \PAIN AT THE PUMP
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Brace for gasoline prices to jump by up to 20 cents per litre if current predictions that oil will break through $100 per barrel come true.
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The increase will happen if refineries and service stations only pass through the forecast increase in the crude price, said Catherine Hay, a senior associate with MJ Ervin & Associates.
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9 H$ o- |8 {# \1 ?0 x0 I, I# s$ vThere is no current reason to suspect the industry will try or be able to increase its profit margins or percentage markups on crude oil if its price climbs, said Hay, whose firm makes a specialty of tracking markets for Canadian refined products.
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0 ~$ _; B) a# U4 VA barrel of oil contains 159 litres. A price increase of $25 US a barrel works out to 17 cents Cdn per litre. If oil goes up $30 US a barrel, gas pump prices rise 20 cents Cdn a litre. Taxes are on top of that.
1 v: Z' @& c2 n© The Edmonton Journal 2007 |
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发表于 2007-7-24 18:10
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